Uncertainty in Weather Forecasting

Early operational Numerical Weather Prediction outside the USA: an historical introduction Part III: Endurance and mathematics – British NWP, 1948–1965

“…In spring 1954 the new director, O. G. Sutton, attended a computer conference in California which made a great impression on him (Sutton 1954a(Sutton , 1955b (Knighting 1956b(Knighting , 1956c(Knighting , 1960a(Knighting , 1960bKnighting et al 1959Knighting et al , 1960. He also wrote review articles (Knighting 1961a(Knighting , 1961b, reports from international meetings (Knighting 1957a(Knighting , 1957b(Knighting , 1962b(Knighting , 1962c(Knighting , 1965 and numerous popular articles where he promoted NWP (Knighting 1951(Knighting , 1956a(Knighting , 1958(Knighting , 1961c(Knighting , 1961d(Knighting , 1962a. and 400 hPa obtained from a three-level atmospheric model.…”

“…Sutton (1954aSutton ( , 1954bSutton ( , 1955aSutton ( , 1955b did the same, but in a less technical way. Knighting (1951) pointed out that the fundamental differential equations could not in principle be adequately solved, only approximately formulated. Sutton (1951) in an article in Weather made clear that the initial conditions were insufficient to determine the final state.…”