Uncertainty in US forest carbon storage potential due to climate risks

Wu, Chao; Coffield, Shane R.; Goulden, Michael L.; Randerson, James T.; Trugman, Anna T.; Anderegg, William R. L.

doi:10.1038/s41561-023-01166-7

Cited by 33 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…The inadequacy of the current buffer pool estimates is much larger for older forests, such as those likely to be enrolled in avoided conversion or improved forest management, but still substantial in younger forests. This central finding that current forest offset protocols do not adequately consider risks to forest permanence aligns with substantial recent work in other regions and globally (W. R. Anderegg et al, 2020Badgley, Chay, et al, 2022;Coffield et al, 2021;Cooley et al, 2012;Galik & Jackson, 2009;Gren & Aklilu, 2016;Hurteau et al, 2009;Wu et al, 2023).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

Current forest carbon offset buffer pools do not adequately insure against disturbance-driven carbon losses

Anderegg,

Trugman,

Vargas

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Nature-based climate solutions in Earths forests could strengthen the land carbon sink and contribute to climate mitigation, but must adequately account for climate risks to the durability of carbon storage. Forest carbon offset protocols use a buffer pool to insure against disturbance risks that may compromise durability. However, current buffer pool tools and allocations are not based on existing scientific data or models. Here, we use a tropical forest stand biomass model and an extensive set of long-term tropical forest plots to test whether current buffer pools are adequate to insure against observed disturbance regimes. We find that forest age and disturbance regime both influence necessary buffer pool sizes. In the vast majority of disturbance scenarios, current buffer pools are substantially smaller than required by carbon cycle science. Buffer pool estimates urgently need to be updated based on rigorous, open scientific datasets for nature-based climate solutions to succeed.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

Current forest carbon offset buffer pools do not adequately insure against disturbance-driven carbon losses

Anderegg,

Trugman,

Vargas

et al. 2024

Preprint

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“…The framework is based solely on SOC quantities, the best predictor for SOC loss in response to disturbance, and potentially enables the inclusion of disturbance‐induced SOC losses in spatially explicit Earth System Models and other upscaling approaches. For example, recent studies simulating forest C sink capacities at continental and global scales have either excluded disturbance‐induced SOC losses (Wang et al., 2021; Wu et al., 2023) or assumed, congruent with the IPCC guidelines (IPCC, 2019), that forest management does not affect C stocks in mineral soils (Harris et al., 2021). Our results indicate that forest C sink strengths may be overestimated in boreal and mountain regions if disturbance‐related changes in SOC are not accounted for appropriately.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A global synthesis and conceptualization of the magnitude and duration of soil carbon losses in response to forest disturbances

Mayer,

Baltensweiler,

James

et al. 2023

Global Ecol Biogeogr

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AimForest disturbances are increasing around the globe due to changes in climate and management, deteriorating forests' carbon sink strength. Estimates of global forest carbon budgets account for losses of plant biomass but often neglect the effects of disturbances on soil organic carbon (SOC). Here, we aimed to quantify and conceptualize SOC losses in response to different disturbance agents on a global scale.LocationGlobal.Time Period1983–2022.Major Taxa StudiedForest soils.MethodsWe conducted a comprehensive global analysis of the effects of harvesting, wildfires, windstorms and insect infestations on forest SOC stocks in the surface organic layer and top mineral soil, synthesizing 927 paired observations from 151 existing field studies worldwide. We further used global mapping to assess potential SOC losses upon disturbance.ResultsWe found that both natural and anthropogenic forest disturbances can cause large SOC losses up to 60 Mg ha−1. On average, the largest SOC losses were found after wildfires, followed by disturbances from windstorms, harvests and insects. However, initial carbon stock size, rather than disturbance agent, had the strongest influence on the magnitude of SOC losses. SOC losses were greatest in cold‐climate forests (boreal and mountainous regions) with large accumulations of organic matter on or near the soil surface. Negative effects are present for at least four decades post‐disturbance. In contrast, forests with small initial SOC stocks experienced quantitatively lower carbon losses, and their stocks returned to pre‐disturbance levels more quickly.Main ConclusionsOur results indicate that the more carbon is stored in the forest's organic layers and top mineral soils, the more carbon will be lost after disturbance. Robust estimates of forest carbon budgets must therefore consider disturbance‐induced SOC losses, which strongly depend on site‐specific stocks. Particularly in cold‐climate forests, these disturbance‐related losses may challenge forest management efforts to sequester CO2.

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“…In addition to systemic political and social restrictions to accessing firewood, climate change is also impacting regional woodlands in ways that will reduce future potential firewood harvest. Drought has already instigated a series of arboreal mortality events in the pinyon-juniper woodlands of southeast Utah in the last two decades [40] and such conditions are expected to continue and intensify in this century [41][42][43][44][45][46][47]. Our prior work shows that live biomass in pinyonjuniper woodlands in San Juan County, Utah, are expected to decrease between 13 and 21% by the end of this century, including in places important to Diné wood haulers (figure 1, [41,47]).…”

Section: Geographical Cultural and Climate Context Of Wood Haulingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Drought has already instigated a series of arboreal mortality events in the pinyon-juniper woodlands of southeast Utah in the last two decades [40] and such conditions are expected to continue and intensify in this century [41][42][43][44][45][46][47]. Our prior work shows that live biomass in pinyonjuniper woodlands in San Juan County, Utah, are expected to decrease between 13 and 21% by the end of this century, including in places important to Diné wood haulers (figure 1, [41,47]). Increasing drought conditions also impact Diné communities in myriad additional ways.…”

Section: Geographical Cultural and Climate Context Of Wood Haulingmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impacts of climate change, energy policy and traditional ecological practices on future firewood availability for Diné (Navajo) People

Magargal,

Wilson,

Chee

et al. 2023

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Local-scale human–environment relationships are fundamental to energy sovereignty, and in many contexts, Indigenous ecological knowledge (IEK) is integral to such relationships. For example, Tribal leaders in southwestern USA identify firewood harvested from local woodlands as vital. For Diné people, firewood is central to cultural and physical survival and offers a reliable fuel for energy embedded in local ecological systems. However, there are two acute problems: first, climate change-induced drought will diminish local sources of firewood; second, policies aimed at reducing reliance on greenhouse-gas-emitting energy sources may limit alternatives like coal for home use, thereby increasing firewood demand to unsustainable levels. We develop an agent-based model trained with ecological and community-generated ethnographic data to assess the future of firewood availability under varying climate, demand and IEK scenarios. We find that the long-term sustainability of Indigenous firewood harvesting is maximized under low-emissions and low-to-moderate demand scenarios when harvesters adhere to IEK guidance. Results show how Indigenous ecological practices and resulting ecological legacies maintain resilient socio-environmental systems. Insights offered focus on creating energy equity for Indigenous people and broad lessons about how Indigenous knowledge is integral for adapting to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture’.

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Uncertainty in US forest carbon storage potential due to climate risks

Cited by 33 publications

References 63 publications

Current forest carbon offset buffer pools do not adequately insure against disturbance-driven carbon losses

Current forest carbon offset buffer pools do not adequately insure against disturbance-driven carbon losses

A global synthesis and conceptualization of the magnitude and duration of soil carbon losses in response to forest disturbances

The impacts of climate change, energy policy and traditional ecological practices on future firewood availability for Diné (Navajo) People

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