Uncertainty in the assessment of hazard, exposure and risk

Abstract

The terminology, concepts and current approaches to uncertainty in the assessment of hazard, exposure and risk are reviewed. Five generic questions are discussed on uncertainty, including sources, levels, when and how it should be dealt with or reduced, what are our gaps in understanding and how they can be addressed. A case study of lead exposure of children in Lavrion, Greece, is used to exemplify these questions and possible answers. Estimation of uncertainty may be improved by the use of interorganizational studies to capture sources of uncertainty that are often overlooked. Gaps identified in our understanding of uncertainty include: a limitation in the availability of basic measurements, a lack of knowledge of the environmental processes, an inability to predict the effects of mixtures, the aetiology of disease and devising procedures for optimal resource allocation in impact assessment.

Visualization of uncertainty in natural hazards assessments using an interactive cartographic information system

“…Epistemic uncertainties can be reduced; they vary depending on available historical data and used models. The presence of uncertainty is acknowledged by many natural hazards and risk specialists and is reflected in sound discussions about uncertainty inherent to natural hazards in general (e.g., Todini 2004;Pappenberger and Beven 2006;Ramsey 2009), issues of uncertainty definition and typology (e.g., Thomson et al 2005;MacEachren et al 2005) as well as location and quantification of existing uncertainty (e.g., Apel et al 2008). In some fields, such as seismic or tsunami hazard management, probabilistic methods are widely used (Wiemer et al 2009) and uncertainty distributions of input parameters are taken into account and propagated through the model.…”

Assessing medicinal qualities of groundwater from the Busko-Zdrój area (Poland) using the probabilistic method

“…and also the uncertainty estimated empirically on the basis of duplicate control samples in accordance with the guidelines provided in Kmiecik (2011) and based on publications (Ramsey et al 1992;Ramsey 1998Ramsey , 2009Ramsey and Argyraki 1997;Ellison et al 2000;Ellison and Williams 2007;Ramsey and Ellison 2007):…”

Levee Decisions and Sustainability for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

“…(1) physical uncertainties, (2) parameter uncertainties, and (3) structural uncertainties with regards to the model itself (Tebbens and others 2008;Ramsey 2009). For this analysis, physical uncertainties for Delta levees and the effectiveness of various upgrade efforts are the most easily quantified, and are explicitly factored into the decision analysis.…”