Uncertainty in soil data can outweigh climate impact signals in global crop yield simulations

Folberth, Christian; Skalský, Rastislav; Moltchanova, Elena; Balkovič, Juraj; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Obersteiner, Michael; Velde, Marijn van der

doi:10.1038/ncomms11872

Cited by 191 publications

(115 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…This interest probably relates to findings reporting that biochar can increase biomass and crop yields especially on low fertility soils in the tropics, which are common in developing tropical countries (Crane-Droesch et al 2013;Glaser et al 2002;Liu et al 2013;Barrett and Bevis 2015;Cornelissen et al 2013;Obia et al 2016). Therefore, developing countries in the tropics suffering from hunger and poverty supported biochar research with the aim to increase agronomic productivity (Barrett and Bevis 2015;Folberth et al 2016;Mueller et al 2012), which clearly links to the zero hunger and reducing poverty Sustainable Development Goals (UN 2015).…”

Section: Influence Of Development On Biochar Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Highly weathered soils are typical for humid (e.g. tropical) zones where low agricultural productivity needs to be improved to reduce poverty (Barrett and Bevis 2015;Folberth et al 2016;Lal 2006). Thus, it is essential to transfer/translate knowledge about the use of biochar as soil amendment to scientists, politicians and end-users in poor tropical countries, where improved soil management strategies in combination with new crop varieties (e.g., droughttolerant ones) can likely maximize beneficial effects on crop yield and climate, fostering further implementation of climatesmart agricultural practices.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Biochar research activities and their relation to development and environmental quality. A meta-analysis

Mehmood

García

Schirrmann

et al. 2017

Agron. Sustain. Dev.

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Section: Influence Of Development On Biochar Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Biochar research activities and their relation to development and environmental quality. A meta-analysis

Mehmood

García

Schirrmann

et al. 2017

Agron. Sustain. Dev.

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“…There is a risk, however, that these soil characteristics will start to have a life of their own with no relationship to particular soil types (often soil series) occurring in characteristic landscapes (Sanchez et al, 2009). Folberth et al (2016) also demonstrated the importance of using soil types to communicate the role that soils can play in climate change mitigation.…”

Section: Developments Within Soil Physics and Pedologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydropedology and the Societal Challenge of Realizing the 2015 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

Bouma

2016

Vadose Zone Journal

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The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) offer a major challenge for both society and the science community. Hydropedology, combining the expertise of soil physicists and pedologists, plays a key role in realizing goals focused on food, water, climate, and ecology, requiring interdisciplinary research. This update explores emerging trends and future work, focusing on examples of contributions by pedology to measuring and modeling in hydropedological studies. Many soil types create heterogeneous flow patterns that are difficult to characterize using current soil databases and physical flow models. The clear potential of hydropedology to produce better modeling results than those obtained from separate contributions by the two subdisciplines can, however, only be established by field validation of modeling results using different types of data and models. Overall soil input in interdisciplinary SDG-oriented research includes chemical and biological aspects that become more representative by considering hydropedological conditions. Abbreviations: SDG, sustainable development goal.Sustainable development has become a widely used concept after its introduction in the Brundtland report (World Commission of Environment and Development, 1987). The need to consider interrelated economic, social, and environmental aspects when dealing with societal issues is evident, but translating this rather abstract concept into operational criteria has been difficult, and difficult also for research. The acceptance, after much discussion, of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the General Assembly of the United Nations in September 2015 (https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdgs) provides a clear and useful focus, including for research, at a time when the research community is challenged by increasingly well-informed citizens and the policy arena both insisting that science should be more in tune with societal demands (e.g., Bouma, 2015). This update explores whether hydropedology can make more valuable contributions to achieving land-related SDGs than would be possible by separate actions in soil physics and pedology.Considering hydropedology, a key question is whether the available data and procedures in soil physics and pedology are adequate to address future interdisciplinary demands focusing on the SDGs. If so, available databases and modeling software could provide the required information for agronomists, hydrologists, climatologists, and ecologists, and no more research would be needed. But this update argues that more hydropedological research is needed, if only because of a challenging statement by Vereecken et al. (2016) (Beven and Germann, 2013). Core Ideas• The UN Sustainable Development Goals present a guiding principle for hydropedology.• Hydropedology is potentially more effective than the separate disciplines.• Pedologists should better support their observations with physical measurements.• Measuring and interpreting bypass flow may be more effective than developing new theory.• Existing soil databases ...

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“…Soil characteristics influence the vegetation response to climate (Folberth et al, 2016). In a model benchmarking study (Eitzinger et al, 2004) simulated evapotranspiration, soil moisture and biomass were compared with observations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Parameter optimisation for a better representation of drought by LSMs: inverse modelling vs. sequential data assimilation

Dewaele¹,

Munier²,

Albergel³

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Soil maximum available water content (Max-AWC) is a key parameter in land surface models (LSMs). However, being difficult to measure, this parameter is usually uncertain. This study assesses the feasibility of using a 15-year (1999-2013) time series of satellite-derived lowresolution observations of leaf area index (LAI) to estimate MaxAWC for rainfed croplands over France. LAI interannual variability is simulated using the CO 2 -responsive version of the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere and Atmosphere (ISBA) LSM for various values of MaxAWC. Optimal value is then selected by using (1) a simple inverse modelling technique, comparing simulated and observed LAI and (2) a more complex method consisting in integrating observed LAI in ISBA through a land data assimilation system (LDAS) and minimising LAI analysis increments. The evaluation of the MaxAWC estimates from both methods is done using simulated annual maximum above-ground biomass (B ag ) and straw cereal grain yield (GY) values from the Agreste French agricultural statistics portal, for 45 administrative units presenting a high proportion of straw cereals. Significant correlations (p value < 0.01) between B ag and GY are found for up to 36 and 53 % of the administrative units for the inverse modelling and LDAS tuning methods, respectively. It is found that the LDAS tuning experiment gives more realistic values of MaxAWC and maximum B ag than the inverse modelling experiment. Using undisaggregated LAI observations leads to an underestimation of MaxAWC and maximum B ag in both experiments. Median annual maximum values of disaggregated LAI observations are found to correlate very well with MaxAWC.

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Uncertainty in soil data can outweigh climate impact signals in global crop yield simulations

Cited by 191 publications

References 51 publications

Biochar research activities and their relation to development and environmental quality. A meta-analysis

Biochar research activities and their relation to development and environmental quality. A meta-analysis

Hydropedology and the Societal Challenge of Realizing the 2015 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

Parameter optimisation for a better representation of drought by LSMs: inverse modelling vs. sequential data assimilation

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