Uncertainty in Irrigation Technology: Insights from a CGE Approach

Abstract

The benefits of technological improvement are uncertain. The timing of the introduction and take-up of new technologies is difficult to estimate. Technological improvements play a decisive role in water policy. In the context of water policy design, we evaluate the implications of uncertainty in the gradual process of enhancements to the efficiency of irrigation water use, for a better understanding of the extent to which these improvements could mitigate the output losses derived from water constraints. To accomplish this, we address simultaneous sensitivity analyses within a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze different uncertainty scenarios. Our results show that the date on which advanced technology becomes available and enters general use is quite significant. The greater and faster the improvements in irrigation technologies, the better.

Challenges to Water Resource Management—Role of Economic and Modeling Approaches

“…Additional interesting and useful CGE works include studies examining investments in the water sector to address possible investments in reservoirs or water transfers, aimed to relieve regional water scarcity [199], and national investment in extending the water portfolio by considering wastewater treatment facilities and desalination plants [200]. Several studies introduced consideration of new irrigation technologies and irrigation management practices, and their likely effect on the water-using sectors [201,202]). A large body of work focusing on international trade impacts on water-sector performance is the reflection of globalization impacts on national economies [203,204].It should be mentioned that the analysis by [202,204] is at the global level, rather than at regional or a country levels.…”

“…Several studies introduced consideration of new irrigation technologies and irrigation management practices, and their likely effect on the water-using sectors [201,202]). A large body of work focusing on international trade impacts on water-sector performance is the reflection of globalization impacts on national economies [203,204].It should be mentioned that the analysis by [202,204] is at the global level, rather than at regional or a country levels.…”