Uncertainty in Damage Assessment and Remaining Life Prediction of Engineering Materials Used In Petrochemical Industry

Abstract

In this paper creep damage assessment of about 11 years' service exposed HP-40 grade of steel used in hydrogen reformer of a petrochemical industry has been carried out in terms of a discontinuous Markov process. Experimentally determined conventional creep data under identical testing condition were used in the present investigation. Scatter and damage accumulation due to creep deformation were evaluated through microstructural assessment using light optical microscope and scanning electron microscope. Quantification of creep damage was made from replicated creep data in terms of two damage parameters A and A*. Statistical analysis of void area fraction has been carried out extensively for the both top and bottom portions of the reformer tube at 870 o C in the stress range of 52-68 MPa. In addition, the proposed probabilistic model has been compared with the Kachanav's Continuum Damage Mechanics (CDM) model. Both the approaches displayed quantitative experimental support. A residual life of 〉 10 years is estimated at 870 o C/ operating stress. For 55 years' service exposed Catalytic Cold Cracking (CCU) reactor vessel and Feed Processing Unit (FPU) distillation column materials of a petrochemical industry remnant life assessment studies were estimated by incorporating the uncertainty involved in calculation of LMP (Larson Miller Parameter) values and from extrapolation of stress vs. LMP plot. Variability of normalized creep damage for reactor and column materials is well approximated with the aid of Weibull distribution. As expected, it is observed that the distributions shift towards the higher range of damage with increase in service exposure time.