Uncertainty in biodiversity science, policy and management: a conceptual overview

Abstract

The protection of biodiversity is a complex societal, political and ultimately practical imperative of current global society. The imperative builds upon scientific knowledge on human dependence on the life-support systems of the Earth. This paper aims at introducing main types of uncertainty inherent in biodiversity science, policy and management, as an introduction to a companion paper summarizing practical experiences of scientists and scholars (Haila et al. 2014). Uncertainty is a cluster concept: the actual nature of uncertainty is inherently context-bound. We use semantic space as a conceptual device to identify key dimensions of uncertainty in the context of biodiversity protection; these relate to [i]

The Value Landscape in Ecosystem Services: Value, Value Wherefore Art Thou Value?

“…These are often connected to a broader repertoire of uncertainties sometimes described as "deep uncertainty" and linked to so-called "Wicked Problems" [107]. Uncertainty is, however, a central property of complex systems, such as coupled social-ecological systems [108,109]. However, in the context of environmental valuation, what do we mean by uncertainty?…”

“…the uncertainty in the parameters used in each of the valuation metrics (i.e., valuation methods)." (p. 684) Similarly, supply uncertainty relates to what [108] identify, in relation to biodiversity, as uncertainties concerning "data" and "proxies", while preference and technical uncertainty variously links to what they define as uncertainties in "concepts", "policy and management" and "normative goals".…”

“…When we talk about preference uncertainty essentially we are referring to the capricious nature of people's preferences-that individuals do not hold (or have) a fixed set of preferences for the amount they would be willing to pay for particular ecosystem services: obtaining consistent and reliable valuable estimates then is like dealing with shifting sands, they are forever moving and hard to pin down [47,106] This is because, as Haila and Henle [108] (p. 35) express: " . .…”

“…Honing in on supply uncertainty, the degree of doubt regarding biophysical uncertainty is dictated by the extent of our knowledge ("epistemic uncertainty") regarding the relationships between ecosystem services and biodiversity, management actions and the provision of ecosystem services and; ultimately, their transformation into human-wellbeing: although the evidence base is increasingly more comprehensive about these connections it is still far from robust [47,108,110]. The main challenges underpinning supply uncertainty have been classified as comprising a triumvirate of issues, specifically relating to: (i) the difficulties involved in disentangling the relationships between ES generation and ecosystem functioning (e.g., spatial heterogeneity that is the supply of ecosystem services is not generally on a uniform per hectare basis); (ii) the requirement that, for valuation purposes, ESs be regarded as independent when in reality they are interrelated and co-produced; and, finally, (iii) the difficulty of pinpointing, and accounting for, ES thresholds [54,61,111].…”

Confronting and Coping with Uncertainty in Biodiversity Research and Praxis

“…When working with biodiversity, there are multiple sites of uncertainties involved at all stages from mundane steps of empirical field research to formulating political recommendations. However, uncertainty has usually been addressed from a narrow perspective (Haila and Henle 2014). "Exploring uncertainties in biodiversity science, policy and management" was the theme of a workshop held at the auspices of Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, UFZ, Leipzig, in November 2011.…”