Uncertainty Entropy-Based Exploratory Evaluation Method and Its Applications on Missile Effectiveness Evaluation

Abstract

Some attributes are uncertain for evaluation work because of incomplete or limited information and knowledge. It leads to uncertainty in evaluation results. To that end, an evaluation method, uncertainty entropy-based exploratory evaluation (UEEE), is proposed to guide the evaluation activities, which can iteratively and gradually reduce uncertainty in evaluation results. Uncertainty entropy (UE) is proposed to measure the extent of uncertainty. First, the belief degree distributions are assumed to characterize the uncertainty in attributes. Then the belief degree distribution of the evaluation result can be calculated by using uncertainty theory. The obtained result is then checked based on UE to see if it could meet the requirements of decision-making. If its uncertainty level is high, more information needs to be introduced to reduce uncertainty. An algorithm based on the UE is proposed to find which attribute can mostly affect the uncertainty in results. Thus, efforts can be invested in key attribute(s), and the evaluation results can be updated accordingly. This update should be repeated until the evaluation result meets the requirements. Finally, as a case study, the effectiveness of ballistic missiles with uncertain attributes is evaluated by UEEE. The evaluation results show that the target is believed to be destroyed.