Uncertainty, Competition and Timing of Land Development: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Hangzhou, China

Wang, Yuan; Wei, Tang; Jia, Shi

doi:10.1007/s11146-015-9517-0

Cited by 17 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…This reveals that 1% increase in the land available for agricultural activities in the panel of countries will cause a decline of 3.97% in the house prices at the long run, although this relationship is shown to be insignificant in the short run. Moreover, the strong evidence of bidirectional relationship observed between the variables, that is, land and hpi , further establishes the link between land use and the housing prices in extant literature (Peng & Wheaton, ; Wang et al, ; Wang, Wang, & Wang, ). However, the relationship is observed to be significant both in the long run and short run for hpi and gepu .…”

Section: Concluding Remarks Policy Implication and Recommendationmentioning

confidence: 54%

“…In the current study, prior knowledge of the land resource limitation (Eriksen, ; Hawley, Miranda, & Sawyer, ; Jackson, ), the trade‐off nexus of the housing market and land supply is further explored. On that note, the study of Davis, Oliner, Pinto, and Bokka () and Wang, Tang, and Jia () were carefully noted for further insights. Importantly from Davis et al (), useful information of the linkage between land prices and house prices were presented specifically on the dynamics of house prices across Washington areas from 2000 to 2013.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The housing market and agricultural land dynamics: Appraising with Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

Alola

Uzuner

2019

Int. J Fin Econ

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Agricultural land is a main component of the environment and ecological system. Therefore, this study employs the panel cointegration approach to investigate the dynamic relationship between the housing market vis‐à‐vis housing price (hp) and agricultural land (land) of a panel of 15 countries (countries with the gross domestic product–weighted average of the national Economic Policy Uncertainty index) over the period 1997–2015. Additionally, Granger causality approach of Dumitrescu–Hurlin is employed for the investigation. The model adjusts to the long‐run equilibrium with an annual speed of 11% from any situation of disequilibrium and with elasticities of −3.97 and −0.67, respectively, for a land and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (gepu). Meanwhile, the impact during a short run of gepu is statistically significant and positive on hp, whereas it is not significant for land. Interestingly, the investigation reveals Granger causality from agricultural land to the housing price with feedback. The research presents an indication that policymaker(s) and urbanization stakeholders should be more concern about effective and sustainable long‐term policies. Future anomalies of food scarcity and skyrocketing house prices associated with agricultural land–house price trade‐off challenges could potentially be mitigated by such effective policy frameworks.

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Section: Concluding Remarks Policy Implication and Recommendationmentioning

confidence: 54%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The housing market and agricultural land dynamics: Appraising with Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

Alola

Uzuner

2019

Int. J Fin Econ

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“…Coupled with the fact that the coefficient for same-year land supply generally increases from secondto fifth-tier cities, there is a greater possibility of land speculation in large cities, especially in firstand second-tier cities. In large cities, due to the continuous demands for land and real estate as well as the ever-rising land prices, developers may purchase land and hoard it for a more lucrative development agenda, a practice that has been noted by others (e.g., [18,63]). Although the possibility of land speculation is lower in low-tier cities, it has been a growing concern in third-tier cities in recent years [62].…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

State Intervention in Land Supply and Its Impact on Real Estate Investment in China: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities

Su¹,

Qian²

2020

Sustainability

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State intervention in land supply can be a powerful tool in shaping real estate investment. Yet, few studies have examined the effect of central state intervention on land supply at the municipal level and the impact of land supply on real estate investment with respect to different tiers of prefecture-level cities in China. Varying central–local dynamics of land supply in different tiers of cities, and the often taken-for-granted relationship between land supply and real estate investment, warrant further investigation. This study aims to fill these gaps. It is found that the multi-purposed central land policy and the varying land leasing strategies adopted by different tiers of cities contribute to the varying land supply trajectories, calling for more nuanced and better-tailored central land policies that focus on the socioeconomic conditions of cities. The general significant and positive correlation between land supply and real estate investment, revealed by a panel regression analysis incorporating 280 prefecture-level Chinese cities, suggests that land supply control can function as a critical tool in governing real estate investment in China, which also sheds light on the governance and promotion of sustainable real estate markets in other parts of the world. This study also reveals a higher possibility of land speculation in first- and second-tier cities than that of low-tier cities. The nuanced correlations between land supply and real estate investment and the varying land development strategies employed in different tiers of Chinese cities imply that the effectiveness of land supply intervention in shaping healthy real estate investment may depend on local contingencies, calling for meticulous and tailored governance on land supply and real estate investment behaviors.

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“…development zones and established a state land supervision system to reclaim land use rights from developers who did not start development within 2 years after purchasing the land (Y. Wang, Tang, & Jia, 2016). In 2006, it further strengthened farmland protection by creating a "red line" of 180 million mu of arable land as the baseline for food security (Rithmire, 2017).…”

Section: Land Availability For Housing Development In Chinamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As recent studies have shown, in response to the uncertainty in government's land supply schedule and rapidly rising land conveyance fees, developers in China often purchased land ahead of their development schedule to build land reserves (Y. Wang et al, 2016), a behavior that also occurs in a market economy (Mayer & Somerville, 2000). 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (1999 to 2013).…”

Section: Land Availability For Housing Development In Chinamentioning

confidence: 99%

Market development, state intervention, and the dynamics of new housing investment in China

Deng

Chen

2018

Journal of Urban Affairs

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This article examines the temporal and spatial variations in the dynamics of China's new housing investment and how they were shaped by the development of private markets and persistent state interventions. Using panel data collected for 35 cities from 1999 to 2013, it measures the price elasticity of housing investment to see how housing production responded to housing price changes. It finds that the price elasticity was about 5 from 1999 to 2008, in the range of what studies of market economies have reported. This shows that China succeeded in establishing a market-driven housing supply system. Price elasticity turned negative from 2009 to 2011, indicating a state-driven housing supply system as the Chinese state took unprecedented actions to stimulate the economy in response to the global financial crisis. Elasticity remained negative in 2012 and 2013 but at a reduced scale. Meanwhile, housing investment became much larger after 2008 than before. These changes show that China's stimulus measures had lasting impacts on the housing industry. Price elasticity is also found to be lower in the eastern region than in the other regions, indicating constraints in the region's housing production. These findings have important implications in our understanding of Chinese housing markets and housing policies.

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Uncertainty, Competition and Timing of Land Development: Theory and Empirical Evidence from Hangzhou, China

Cited by 17 publications

References 14 publications

The housing market and agricultural land dynamics: Appraising with Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

The housing market and agricultural land dynamics: Appraising with Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

State Intervention in Land Supply and Its Impact on Real Estate Investment in China: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities

Market development, state intervention, and the dynamics of new housing investment in China

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