Uncertainty-Based Capacity Factors of Operational Wind Turbines Using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) Method

Abstract

This study proposes a novel framework that couples the general likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method with a deterministic forecasting approach to conduct a new uncertainty analysis approach for assessing the energy production of operational wind turbines installed in the Jhongtun wind farm at Penghu (an island in the middle of Taiwan Strait). The 10-year measured data of wind speeds and energy output collected on these wind turbines is divided into two 5-year data sets for the present analysis framework of execution and validation to demonstrate the predictability of the GLUE method. The present study considers 15 scenario testing cases with various time periods, i.e., twelve months, the strong-wind (October-March) regime, the weak-wind (April-September) regime, and one year, for the framework to investigate the applicability of the GLUE method on long-term wind energy forecasting. In the execution framework, the 5-year measured data is used by the GLUE method to access the uncertainties involved in the deterministic approach (i.e., the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull wind speed distribution (WWSD), the performance curve, and the capacity factor) with two confidence intervals of 50% and 90%. The framework is then validated by the measured capacity factors in the last 5-year data and compared with the results of the uncertainty analysis approach by the Monte Carlo (MC) approach to discover the applicability of the new uncertainty analysis approach. From the simulated results, it is found that the proposed uncertainty analysis approach provides predictions of confidence intervals that match the measured data better than the MC-based uncertainty analysis approach. Specifically, the proposed approach can match the measured capacity factors in all the simulated scenarios. Conversely, the MC-based approach is found to create narrow confidence intervals that cannot completely capture the measured capacity factors, particularly for the strong-wind, weak-wind, and one-year scenarios. Therefore, this novel uncertainty analysis approach is proven to be useful in predicting the uncertainties of wind energy production.