Uncertainty Assessment in Ship Performance Evaluation by Monte Carlo Simulation Using Onboard Monitoring Data

Abstract

Onboard monitoring for ship performance evaluation in actual seas is widely conducted in the shipping sector. Onboard monitoring usually involves a large number of instruments for measuring ship performance and the sea conditions in which the ship navigates, and such instruments are subject to some amount of error, which means that the accuracy of the instruments influences the evaluation. In this study, an uncertainty assessment was carried out to investigate the influence of instrument accuracy on two subjects by Monte Carlo Simulation. One subject is ship performance in calm seas evaluated by correction of performance for the effects of waves and winds, and the other is voyage simulation. As a result, this study clarified the accuracy of the instruments used in onboard monitoring required for achieving a reliable evaluation of ship performance in actual seas.