Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy

Funtowicz, Silvio; Ravetz, Jerome R.

doi:10.1007/978-94-009-0621-1

Cited by 1,018 publications

(549 citation statements)

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“…Pedigree analysis is part of the NUSAP system 1 (Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1990;Risbey et al, 2005;Refsgaard et al, 2006). It conveys an evaluative account of the production process of a quantity and indicates different aspects of the underpinning of the numbers and scientific status of the knowledge base where it stems from.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainties in the Netherlands greenhouse gas emission inventory for 1990–2004

Ramírez

Keizer

Sluijs

et al. 2008

Atmospheric Environment

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a b s t r a c tThis paper presents an assessment of the value added of a Monte Carlo analysis of the uncertainties in the Netherlands inventory of greenhouse gases over a Tier 1 analysis. It also examines which parameters contributed the most to the total emission uncertainty and identified areas of high priority for the further improvement of the accuracy and quality of the inventory. The Monte Carlo analysis resulted in an uncertainty range in total GHG emissions of 4.1% in 2004 and 5.4% in 1990 (with LUCF) and 5.3% (in 1990) and 3.9% (in 2004) for GHG emissions without LUCF. Uncertainty in the trend was estimated at 4.5%. The values are in the same order of magnitude as those estimated in the Tier 1. The results show that accounting for correlation among parameters is important, and for the Netherlands inventory it has a larger impact on the uncertainty in the trend than on the uncertainty in the total GHG emissions. The main contributors to overall uncertainty are found to be related to N 2 O emissions from agricultural soils, the N 2 O implied emission factors of Nitric Acid Production, CH 4 from managed solid waste disposal on land, and the implied emission factor of CH 4 from manure management from cattle.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainties in the Netherlands greenhouse gas emission inventory for 1990–2004

Ramírez

Keizer

Sluijs

et al. 2008

Atmospheric Environment

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“…In contrast, opponents of research have argued that ignorance is unavoidable (''there are limits to human knowledge'' (Hulme 2014: 112), and that remaining ignorant constitutes good policy. Regardless of whether or not ignorance constitutes good policy, if fundamental uncertainties about distributional aspects of solar geoengineered futures cannot be reduced through provision of more science (on this point, see also Sarewitz 2004;Funtowicz & Ravetz 1990), then the case for more research as key to furthering equity becomes more tenuous.…”

Section: Equity As Distributional Outcomes: Winners and Losers In Solmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evoking equity as a rationale for solar geoengineering research? Scrutinizing emerging expert visions of equity

Flegal

Gupta

2017

Int Environ Agreements

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This paper examines how notions of equity are being evoked by expert advocates of more research into solar geoengineering. We trace how specific understandings of equity figure centrally-although not always explicitly-in these expert visions. We find that understandings of equity in such ''vanguard visions'' are narrowly conceived as epistemic challenges, answerable by (more) scientific analysis. Major concerns about equity are treated as empirical matters, requiring scientific assessment of feasibility, risks, or ''win-win'' distributive outcomes and optimizations, with concurrent calls to delimit risk or reduce scientific uncertainties. We argue that such epistemic framings sidestep, inter alia, the inequality in resources available to diverse non-experts-including the ''vulnerable'' evoked in expert visions-to project their own equity perspectives onto imagined technological pathways of the future. These may include concerns relating to moral or historical responsibility and/or lack of agency in shaping the directions of innovation. We conclude that the performative power and political implications of specific expert visions of equity, evoked as a rationale to undertake solar geoengineering research, require continued scrutiny.

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“…Brown et al 2005;Faber et al 1992;Funtowicz and Ravetz 1990;Klauer and Brown 2004;Smithson 1989;van Asselt 2000;Wynne 1992). Within a literature study we investigated to what extent these approaches are suitable to describe uncertainty in the implementation process of the WFD.…”

Section: A Conceptual Framework For Describing Uncertainty In Environmentioning

confidence: 99%

Conceptualising uncertainty in environmental decision-making: The example of the EU water framework directive

Sigel

Klauer

Pahl‐Wostl

2010

Ecological Economics

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Uncertainty and Quality in Science for Policy

Cited by 1,018 publications

References 0 publications

Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainties in the Netherlands greenhouse gas emission inventory for 1990–2004

Monte Carlo analysis of uncertainties in the Netherlands greenhouse gas emission inventory for 1990–2004

Evoking equity as a rationale for solar geoengineering research? Scrutinizing emerging expert visions of equity

Conceptualising uncertainty in environmental decision-making: The example of the EU water framework directive

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