Uncertainty and Emergent Constraints on Enhanced Ecosystem Carbon Stock by Land Greening

Abstract

The satellite-observed greening of the land surface has been unequivocal since the early 1980s and widely reported in recent studies mainly as a result of CO 2 fertilization (

Neutral Tropical African CO2 Exchange Estimated From Aircraft and Satellite Observations

“…S. Williamson et al, 2021). It has also been used by the global carbon cycle, oceanography, and atmospheric chemistry communities to constrain, often the magnitude and spatial distribution rather than a projection, of greenhouse gas fluxes, ocean heat transports, oxidation rates, ecosystem carbon stocks, etc (e.g., Bian et al, 2023;W. Li et al, 2017;Loechli et al, 2023;Long et al, 2021;Patra et al, 2014;Resplandy et al, 2016;Stephens et al, 2007).…”

“…The emergent constraint approach has been widely used in the prognostic climate modeling community to constrain future climate projections based on observations of the current system and emergent relationships from Earth system model ensembles (e.g., Cox, 2019; Hall et al., 2019; Simpson et al., 2021; M. S. Williamson et al., 2021). It has also been used by the global carbon cycle, oceanography, and atmospheric chemistry communities to constrain, often the magnitude and spatial distribution rather than a projection, of greenhouse gas fluxes, ocean heat transports, oxidation rates, ecosystem carbon stocks, etc (e.g., Bian et al., 2023; W. Li et al., 2017; Loechli et al., 2023; Long et al., 2021; Patra et al., 2014; Resplandy et al., 2016; Stephens et al., 2007). Our approach is consistent with this latter group.…”