Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk

Hinkel, Jochen; Feyen, Luc; Hemer, Mark; Cozannet, Gonéri Le; Lincke, Daniël; Marcos, Marta; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Merkens, Jan-Ludolf; Moel, Hans de; Muis, Sanne; Nicholls, Robert J.; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Wal, R. S. W. van de; Vousdoukas, Michalis; Wahl, Thomas; Ward, Philip J.; Wolff, Claudia

doi:10.1029/2020ef001882

Cited by 43 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 229 publications

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“…In the USA, where high accuracy data derived from airborne lidar exists for which to validate these products, CoastalDEM's reported vertical error as measured by the root-mean squared error (RMSE) is 2.4 m, with considerable spatial variability. Given the importance of DEMs in flood risk assessment (McClean et al 2020), further DEM accuracy improvements for these products are needed (Hinkel et al 2021;Gesch 2018). CoastalDEM, 1 MERIT and NASADEM are publicly available.…”

Section: Create and Maintain New Publicly Available Exposure And Vuln...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts

et al. 2022

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Estimates of changes in the frequency or height of contemporary extreme sea levels (ESLs) under various climate change scenarios are often used by climate and sea level scientists to help communicate the physical basis for societal concern regarding sea level rise. Changes in ESLs (i.e., the hazard) are often represented using various metrics and indicators that, when anchored to salient impacts on human systems and the natural environment, provide useful information to policy makers, stakeholders, and the general public. While changes in hazards are often anchored to impacts at local scales, aggregate global summary metrics generally lack the context of local exposure and vulnerability that facilitates translating hazards into impacts. Contextualizing changes in hazards is also needed when communicating the timing of when projected ESL frequencies cross critical thresholds, such as the year in which ESLs higher than the design height benchmark of protective infrastructure (e.g., the 100-year water level) are expected to occur within the lifetime of that infrastructure. We present specific examples demonstrating the need for such contextualization using a simple flood exposure model, local sea level rise projections, and population exposure estimates for 414 global cities. We suggest regional and global climate assessment reports integrate global, regional, and local perspectives on coastal risk to address hazard, vulnerability and exposure simultaneously.

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Section: Create and Maintain New Publicly Available Exposure And Vuln...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In some cases, it has caused confusion from a communications standpoint (e.g., Mussen 2021). While some efforts have been made, 2 a spatially explicit global database with flood protection footprints, elevations/protection levels, and failure rates remains elusive (Hinkel et al 2021).…”

Section: Create and Maintain New Publicly Available Exposure And Vuln...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts

et al. 2022

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“…is a major source of uncertainty (e.g., Hinkel et al, 2021), the relative impacts (changes in exposure and risk) are much less sensitive to the DEM used. Current population exposure is obtained by overlaying elevation exposure with the Gridded Population of the World (GPW) population data (Center for International Earth Science Information Network -CIESIN -Columbia University, 2018).…”

Section: Accepted Articlementioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the Drivers of Coastal Flood Exposure and Risk From 1860 to 2100

et al. 2022

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Global coastal flood exposure (population and assets) has been growing since the beginning of the industrial age and is likely to continue to grow through 21st century. Three main drivers are responsible: (1) climate-related mean sea-level change, (2) vertical land movement contributing to relative sea-level rise, and (3) socio-economic development. This paper attributes growing coastal exposure and flood risk from 1860 to 2100 to these three drivers. For historic flood exposure (1860 to 2005) we find that the roughly six-fold increase in population exposure and 53-fold increase in asset exposure are almost completely explained by socio-economic development (>97% for population and >99% for assets). For future exposure (2005 to 2100), assuming a middle-of-the-road regionalized socio-economic scenario (SSP2) without coastal migration and sea-level rise according to RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, climate-change induced sea-level rise will become the most important driver for the growth in population exposure, while growth in asset exposure will still be mainly determined by socioeconomic development.

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“…Table 1. Examples of vulnerability rank of some Pacific islands, adapted from (Kuruppu and Willie, to be 10 cm higher than the current conditions, keeping in mind that it is necessary to take into account the margins of uncertainty which can be important [16,17].…”

Section: Figure 1 Main Islands In Pacific Oceanmentioning

confidence: 99%

Supporting a Resilience Observatory to Climate Risks in French Polynesia: From Valorization of Preexisting Data to Low-Cost Data Acquisition

Jessin

Heinzlef

Long

et al. 2022

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Climate change has an ever-increasing impact on island territories. Whether it is due to rising sea levels or the increase in recurrence and intensity of extreme events, island territories are increasingly vulnerable. These impacts are expected to affect marine and terrestrial biodiversity, human occupation (infrastructure) and other activities such as agriculture and tourism, the two economic pillars of French Polynesia. While the current and future impacts of climate change on island territories are generally accepted, data acquisition, modeling, and projections of climate change are more complex to obtain and limitedly cover the island territories of the Pacific region. This article aims to develop methodologies for the acquisition and exploitation of data on current and future climate risks and their impacts in French Polynesia. This work of acquisition and valorization is part of a research project for the development of an observatory of resilience to climate risks in the perspective of building a spatial decision support system.

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Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk

Cited by 43 publications

References 229 publications

Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts

Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts

Understanding the Drivers of Coastal Flood Exposure and Risk From 1860 to 2100

Supporting a Resilience Observatory to Climate Risks in French Polynesia: From Valorization of Preexisting Data to Low-Cost Data Acquisition

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