Uncertainty Analysis – 5 Challenges with Today's Practice

Johansen, Agnar; Sandvin, Bettina; Torp, Olav; Økland, Andreas

doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.066

Cited by 11 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Different authors have identified challenges with cost estimation processes under uncertainty [5,[15][16][17]. Obviously there is a need for more knowledge and better practices.…”

Section: Project Management and Cost Estimation Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Still, Johansen et al [5] recently identified five challenges with current practice, which will affect the output from the analyses. We discuss them below:…”

Section: Documented Challenges In Current Practicementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first challenge, expected value challenge, covers a growth in expected costs over time during the project planning [5], also called the cost estimation paradox [41]. A sample of 67 Norwegian projects on average finished within expected cost [42].…”

Section: Documented Challenges In Current Practicementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Many authors identify numerous challenges in cost estimations and uncertainty analyses in complex projects [2][3][4][5][6]. We want to show that it is possible to handle at least some of these challenges through a systematic approach to the process and by choosing the right analytical method and tools and performing the analysis well.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The following critical problems in front-end cost estimation and uncertainty analysis processes are prominent in today's practice [5]. The five challenges are reviewed in the literature section and reformulated here for the purpose of this paper.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Challenges in Cost Estimation under Uncertainty—A Case Study of the Decommissioning of Barsebäck Nuclear Power Plant

Torp

Klakegg

2016

Administrative Sciences

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Abstract:Cost estimation is an important part of project planning. Over the years different approaches have developed, taking uncertainty into account in the cost estimation processes in order to tackle the dynamic nature of projects. However, when implementing these approaches, some challenges have been revealed. The aim in a cost estimation process is to establish a realistic overview of the total project costs and its uncertainties. Even though tools and methods for taking uncertainty into account are implemented, projects with cost overruns are often seen. In this paper we look into some challenges with the practice in cost estimation processes and identify possible improvements to overcome them. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate better solutions to some of the major weaknesses identified in current cost estimation practice. We use a case study of decommissioning of Barsebäck Nuclear Power Plant to illustrate how to overcome these challenges. First of all, this is an interesting case with challenges related to the project and the cost estimation process, given the complexity in the situation and that very few have experiences related to decommission of nuclear power plants. Second, we applied an approach that is not yet commonly used to develop cost estimates for this kind of projects. The paper concludes that it is possible to improve the results of uncertainty analysis of cost estimates. A well prepared process, with a suitable group of experts that go through a well-structured process, focusing both on risks and opportunities and using a top-down approach can compensate for some of the challenges related to cost estimation under uncertainty.

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“…Different authors have identified challenges with cost estimation processes under uncertainty [5,[15][16][17]. Obviously there is a need for more knowledge and better practices.…”

Section: Project Management and Cost Estimation Challengesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Still, Johansen et al [5] recently identified five challenges with current practice, which will affect the output from the analyses. We discuss them below:…”

Section: Documented Challenges In Current Practicementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Documented Challenges In Current Practicementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Challenges in Cost Estimation under Uncertainty—A Case Study of the Decommissioning of Barsebäck Nuclear Power Plant

Torp

Klakegg

2016

Administrative Sciences

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Risk and Opportunity Management for Project Selection in the Road Construction Industry

Stisen

Syverud

2020

INCOSE International Symp

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Road Construction projects failing to meet deadlines or budget costs puts burden on the construction company. The consequence may be economically unprofitable projects that significantly weaken the company's financial performance. To avoid unnecessary use of resources, the companies must identify and filter out unprofitable projects as early as possible. This paper lays out a process for use with road construction companies to improve their ability to choose profitable projects. The focus is on active management of risk and opportunity in the pre‐selection phase. The research is based on a case study at a road construction company. We interviewed key personnel to understand their main needs. We validated the proposed solution through a survey of nine employees at the same company. Our research resulted in a new method targeted to guide construction companies through the project selection process. The developed process flow illustrates the sequence and interaction of the different process stages. The risk and opportunity process is complemented with a check list, a risk and opportunity register, and the associated risk and opportunity matrix.

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Managing Risk and Opportunities in Complex Projects

Rolstadås

Johansen

Bjerke

et al. 2019

IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology

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HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L'archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

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Uncertainty Analysis – 5 Challenges with Today's Practice

Cited by 11 publications

References 4 publications

Challenges in Cost Estimation under Uncertainty—A Case Study of the Decommissioning of Barsebäck Nuclear Power Plant

Challenges in Cost Estimation under Uncertainty—A Case Study of the Decommissioning of Barsebäck Nuclear Power Plant

Risk and Opportunity Management for Project Selection in the Road Construction Industry

Managing Risk and Opportunities in Complex Projects

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