Uncertainties in runoff projection and hydrological drought assessment over Gharesu basin under CMIP5 RCP scenarios

Ashrafi, Seyed Mohammad; Gholami, Hamid; Najafi, Mohammad Reza

doi:10.2166/wcc.2020.088

Cited by 15 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…The method of calculating SDI is the same as calculating SPI. The future information about SDI and its performances can be reached from the related literature (Adib et al, 2020;Ashrafi et al, 2020;Adib & Tavancheh, 2019). In this research, based upon the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, the time series of the baseline period and the future period of the Hablehroud river basin streamflow conform to the lognormal probability distribution (Srinivasan, 1971).…”

Section: Assessing Hydrologic Droughtmentioning

confidence: 98%

Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)

et al. 2021

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This study evaluates the impact of climate change (CC) on runoff and hydrological drought trends in the Hablehroud river basin in central Iran. We used a daily time series of minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax), and precipitation (PCP) for the baseline period (1982–2005) analysis. For future projections, we used the output of 23 CMIP5 GCMs and two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; then, PCP, Tmin, and Tmax were projected in the future period (2025–2048). The GCMs were weighed based on the K-nearest neighbors algorithm. The results indicated a rising temperature in all months and increasing PCP in most months throughout the Hablehroud river basin's areas for the future period. The highest increase in the Tmin and Tmax in the south of the river basin under the RCP 8.5 scenario, respectively, was 1.87 °C and 1.80 °C. Furthermore, the highest reduction in the PCP was 54.88% in August under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The river flow was simulated by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model. The annual runoff under the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 declined by 11.44% and 13.13%, respectively. The basin runoff had a downward trend at the baseline period; however, it will have a downward trend in the RCP 4.5 scenario and an upward trend in the RCP 8.5 scenario for the future period. This study also analyzed drought by calculating the streamflow drought index for different time scales. Overall, the Hablehroud river basin will face short-term and medium-term hydrological drought in the future period.

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Section: Assessing Hydrologic Droughtmentioning

confidence: 98%

Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)

et al. 2021

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“…Generally speaking, there are four types of droughts: meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and socio-economic droughts [5]. They are closely related and interact with each other.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial–Temporal Assessment of Historical and Future Meteorological Droughts in China

Han

et al. 2021

Atmosphere

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Drought is a natural phenomenon in which the natural amount of water in an area is below the normal level. It has negative impacts on production in numerous industries and people’s lives, especially in the context of climate change. Investigating the spatial–temporal variation of drought is of great importance in water resource allocation and management. For a better understanding of how drought has changed in China from 1961 to 2020 and will change in the future period of this century (2021–2100), a spatial–temporal assessment of drought based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was carried out. The trends and characteristics (number, duration, and severity) of historical and future droughts in China were evaluated based on 12-month SPEI by employing the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope and run theory. The similarities, differences, and spatial–temporal evolution of droughts in these two periods were analyzed. The results showed that in the historical period the number of droughts decreased gradually from the south of China to the north. Less frequent drought but with longer duration and stronger severity occurred in the northeast and the northern areas. In the future period, most parts of China are projected to suffer more severe droughts with longer duration, especially for Northeast China, North China, Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, and Southwest China. The likely increasing severity and duration of droughts in most areas of China in the future makes it very necessary to formulate the corresponding drought prevention and relief strategies to reduce the possible losses caused by droughts.

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“…Dez river includes the main rivers, i.e. Sezar and Bakhtiari, which join Karun river in Band-e-Ghir and then lead to the formation of Great Karun (Ashrafi et al 2020a(Ashrafi et al , 2020b.…”

Section: The Region Understudymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change and human activities have a significant influence on different components of the hydrology cycle (Milly et al 2002;Ishak et al 2013;Chen et al 2019;Esha & Imteaz 2019;Ashrafi et al 2020aAshrafi et al , 2020bMohammadi et al 2020aMohammadi et al , 2020bMohammadi et al , 2021. In recent decades, about 31 percent of 145 main rivers in the world have indicated significant statistical changes in their annual flow (Zhai & Tao 2017;Dinpashoh et al 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection of abrupt shift and non-parametric analyses of trends in runoff time series in the Dez river basin

Gholami¹,

Moradi²,

Lotfirad

et al. 2021

Water Supply

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The present study aims to investigate the homogeneity of runoff time series and also to review the existence of trends in Tale Zang hydrometric station (the hydrometric station in the entrance of Dez Reservoir) runoff, using 61 years (1956–2016) daily observatory data. Pettit test, which is a common method in investigating the homogeneity of time series, was used to identify change points. Both Mann-Kendall and auto-correlated Mann-Kendall tests were applied to analyze the existence or non-existence of trends in each annual, seasonal, and monthly time series observed in a runoff. In time series, significant trends in 95% level of confidence were recognized, upper and lower limit values were presented for Sen's slope and it was tested for the increasing or decreasing trends in nature. Based on the results of this study, the significant change point in 95% level of confidence was recognized in Annual, Spring, Summer, Autumn, March, May, June, July, August, September, and October in 1997,1997, 1999, 1997, 1999, 1999, 1999, 1997, 2000, 2007, 2008, respectively. Analyzing the existence of a trend in 95% level of confidence indicated that in Spring, and in March, September, and October, for both Mann-Kendall and auto-correlated Mann-Kendall tests, the trend is significant and additive until the change point.

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Uncertainties in runoff projection and hydrological drought assessment over Gharesu basin under CMIP5 RCP scenarios

Cited by 15 publications

References 73 publications

Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)

Simulation of the impact of climate change on runoff and drought in an arid and semiarid basin (the Hablehroud, Iran)

Spatial–Temporal Assessment of Historical and Future Meteorological Droughts in China

Detection of abrupt shift and non-parametric analyses of trends in runoff time series in the Dez river basin

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