Unavowed Abstention Can Overturn Poll Predictions

Galam, Serge

doi:10.3389/fphy.2018.00024

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Models of opinion dynamics are among the most studied models of complex systems [1][2][3][4]. This is not surprising, because they can be treated as a zero-level approach to various more complex social processes, including polarization of opinion [5][6][7], diffusion of innovation [8][9][10] or political voting [11][12][13]. In most of these models, public opinion is formed as an outcome from individual opinions of mutually interacting agents.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Homogeneous Symmetrical Threshold Model with Nonconformity: Independence versus Anticonformity

Nowak

Sznajd-Weron

2019

Complexity

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We study two variants of the modified Watts threshold model with a noise (with nonconformity, in the terminology of social psychology) on a complete graph. Within the first version, a noise is introduced via so-called independence, whereas in the second version anticonformity plays the role of a noise, which destroys the order. The modified Watts threshold model, studied here, is homogeneous and posses an up-down symmetry, which makes it similar to other binary opinion models with a single-flip dynamics, such as the majority-vote and the q-voter models. Because within the majority-vote model with independence only continuous phase transitions are observed, whereas within the q-voter model with independence also discontinuous phase transitions are possible, we ask the question about the factor, which could be responsible for discontinuity of the order parameter. We investigate the model via the mean-field approach, which gives the exact result in the case of a complete graph, as well as via Monte Carlo simulations. Additionally, we provide a heuristic reasoning, which explains observed phenomena. We show that indeed, if the threshold r = 0.5, which corresponds to the majority-vote model, an order-disorder transition is continuous. Moreover, results obtained for both versions of the model (one with independence and the second one with anticonformity) give the same results, only rescaled by the factor of 2. However, for r > 0.5 the jump of the order parameter and the hysteresis is observed for the model with independence, and both versions of the model give qualitatively different results.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Homogeneous Symmetrical Threshold Model with Nonconformity: Independence versus Anticonformity

Nowak

Sznajd-Weron

2019

Complexity

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“…Second, effective turnout accounts for invalid votes (i.e., blank and null votes) when calculating turnout: it is measured as the number of valid votes divided by the total number of registered voters. This differentiated operationalization of electoral participation into overall and effective turnout follows recent relevant work (see, e.g., Barnes and Rangel 2018 ; and Galam 2018 for French elections). Distinguishing between overall and effective turnout is particularly pertinent when comparing paper versus Internet voting, as the use of voting machines constitutes an effective method for reducing voter errors and uncounted ballots (Alvarez and Hall 2008 ; Germann 2020 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 67%

Internet voting from abroad: exploring turnout in the 2014 French consular elections

Dandoy

Kernalegenn

2021

Fr Polit

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Internet voting has been available for French citizens living abroad since 2006, and 43.21% of them filled out their ballots online for the first election of their consular delegates in 2014. Using a multivariate analysis of turnout figures at the district and country levels, this research note explores if ballot box and Internet voters differ in their electoral participation patterns. It concludes that turnout must be understood based on the voting modality that French voters choose. While the characteristics of the electoral district (community size, geographical, and historical proximity with France, and party competition) impact ballot box voter turnout, Internet voter turnout is most influenced by the host country’s economic and infrastructure development.

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“…Socio-physical models based on classical physical effects [44,45,49,63,71,103,104] have become an important topic of mainstream scientific research and have found practical applications outside academia [105,106]. Thus, one of the main questions of this paper is what, in general, makes a quantum-mechanical model attractive for the analysis of opinion polarisation in social networks.…”

Section: The Origin Of Quantum Advantage In Models Of Social Mediamentioning

confidence: 98%

Quantum-Mechanical Modelling of Asymmetric Opinion Polarisation in Social Networks

Maksymov,

Pogrebna

2024

Information

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We propose a quantum-mechanical model that represents a human system of beliefs as the quantised energy levels of a physical system. This model represents a novel perspective on opinion dynamics, recreating a broad range of experimental and real-world data that exhibit an asymmetry of opinion radicalisation. In particular, the model demonstrates the phenomena of pronounced conservatism versus mild liberalism when individuals are exposed to opposing views, mirroring recent findings on opinion polarisation via social media exposure. Advancing this model, we establish a robust framework that integrates elements from physics, psychology, behavioural science, decision-making theory, and philosophy. We also emphasise the inherent advantages of the quantum approach over traditional models, suggesting a number of new directions for future research work on quantum-mechanical models of human cognition and decision-making.

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Unavowed Abstention Can Overturn Poll Predictions

Cited by 12 publications

References 24 publications

Homogeneous Symmetrical Threshold Model with Nonconformity: Independence versus Anticonformity

Homogeneous Symmetrical Threshold Model with Nonconformity: Independence versus Anticonformity

Internet voting from abroad: exploring turnout in the 2014 French consular elections

Quantum-Mechanical Modelling of Asymmetric Opinion Polarisation in Social Networks

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