Unanticipated biological changes and global warming

Beaugrand, Grégory

doi:10.3354/meps09493

Cited by 42 publications

(42 citation statements)

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“…For example, if the thermal regime of a region is close to the optimal part of a species thermal niche, then the sensitivity of that species to climate change will be small. On the other hand, if the thermal regime is close to the edge of the thermal niche of the species, the species will be sensitive to climate-induced temperature change and exhibit a rapid response [85,86]. This phenomenon explains why all species in an ecosystem do not exhibit a shift [45,87], and, if a limited 2002 2003 1999 2000 2001 1989 1990 1991 1996 1997 1998 1992 1993 1994 1995 1984 1986 1985 1987 1988 1977 1978 1976 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1972 1973 1974 1971 1975 1960 1961 1962 1963 1968 1970 1969 1964 1965 1966 To address this question, we analysed the first three PCs originating from the PCAs performed for each ecosystem to reveal the NH biological state (BioPC), together with climate indicators (NHT, AO, PDO and AMO) and with long-term spatial variations in NHTs and SLPs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Beaugrand

Conversi

Chiba

et al. 2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Beaugrand

Conversi

Chiba

et al. 2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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“…Changes in the marine environment and productivity are likely to indirectly affect higher trophic species, with predicted changes in their abundance as well as expected distributional shifts (Beaugrand 2012;Last et al 2011;Lloyd et al 2012;Sharp 2003). However for baleen whales in the Southern Hemisphere, the effects of a changing marine environment are less defined and are thus more challenging to quantify and predict, due to whales slow growth, long life spans, and distribution across large spatial scales.…”

Section: Biophysical-biological Linked Multi-species Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Livelihoods (Chapter 4)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Changes in the marine environment and productivity will likely indirectly affect higher trophic species, with predicted changes in their abundance as well as expected distributional shifts (Beaugrand 2012;Last et al 2011;Lloyd et al 2012;Sharp 2003). Because the models developed for Chapters 5 and 6 are spatial, I was able to evaluate one adaptive mechanism for whales given changing sea-ice extent in Antarctica, which shows possible improved outcomes for humpbacks in the Atlantic/Indian region.…”

Section: Managing Global Versus Local Stressorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similarly, local management strategies could be considered in the Atlantic/Indian region where climate impacts on krill and indirectly on whales were greatest, such as incorporating new krill harvest controls, or moving krill fisheries to other regions in the Pacific that may be less affected by climate-driven changes in the environment. This model could also be used to tackle more controversial topics such as the ecosystem effects of harvesting of whales in the future.Changes in the marine environment and productivity will likely indirectly affect higher trophic species, with predicted changes in their abundance as well as expected distributional shifts (Beaugrand 2012;Last et al 2011;Lloyd et al 2012;Sharp 2003). Because the models developed…”

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confidence: 99%

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Managing direct and indirect threats to marine ecosystems to balance multiple objectives

Tulloch¹

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Human activities affecting the environment are intensifying. In marine ecosystems, direct stressors of overfishing and habitat destruction have led to biodiversity declines, prompting calls for conservation action and more sustainable resource management. Managing stressors becomes more challenging when stressors interact, or are indirect, whereby the source of the threatening activity is displaced from impacts, such as the localised effects of global warming, or runoff from land-use change degrading coral reefs. Effective management requires improved understanding of ecosystem responses to multiple stressors and consideration of interactions between stressors and species.Opposing objectives and outcomes of marine conservation (i.e. reducing stressors) versus resource management (often increasing stressors) compromise effective decision-making. Approaches are needed that include ecological and socio-economic information to promote long-term sustainability of extractive uses, protect functioning ecosystems, and conserve biodiversity. The choice of tool used to inform ecosystem management is typically constrained by management goals and available resources -spatial planning is typically used for conservation, whereas resource management relies more on population modelling.The goal of this thesis is to harness spatial and population modelling techniques to combine resource management with biodiversity conservation and link direct and indirect stressors to marine biodiversity persistence. Chapter 1 provides the context for the thesis, where I explore these themes and outline differences in decision-making for conservation versus extraction. In Chapter 2, I explore how agencies have managed stressors to date, and show that a decision-theoretic approach known as "structured decision-making" (SDM) is a more logical and effective way of managing stressors than traditional approaches that map threats. SDM requires clear objectives, canvassing of alternative management options, and linking outcomes for biodiversity to the effectiveness of each management option. SDM ensures that conservation actions occur where they are the most cost-efficient or effective. I apply recommendations from Chapter 2 in two case studies for managing multiple stressors to marine ecosystems: 1) spatial planning for oil palm agriculture and coral reef fisheries in Papua New Guinea (Chapters 3 and 4), and 2) managing whale species affected by harvesting, climate change and krill population dynamics in the Southern Hemisphere (Chapters 5 and 6).In Chapter 3 I combine ecosystem models and threat maps with spatial conservation planning to predict responses of coral and seagrass ecosystems to changing land uses. My novel framework identifies high priority areas for marine reserves whilst accounting for indirect impacts of land use change such as oil palm development and uncertainty in future stressor intensities. I demonstrate ii how we can reduce adverse impacts of oil palm expansion and make more effective whole-ofsystem decisions for coasta...

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Pelagic Ecosystems and Climate Change

Beaugrand

2014

Global Environmental Change

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Unanticipated biological changes and global warming

Cited by 42 publications

References 28 publications

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Managing direct and indirect threats to marine ecosystems to balance multiple objectives

Pelagic Ecosystems and Climate Change

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