U.S. Pacific coastal wetland resilience and vulnerability to sea-level rise

Thorne, Karen M.; MacDonald, Glen M.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Ambrose, Richard F.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Dugger, Bruce D.; Freeman, Chase M.; Janousek, Christopher N.; Brown, Lauren N.; Rosencranz, Jordan A.; Holmquist, James R.; Smol, John P.; Hargan, Kathryn E.; Takekawa, John Y.

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aao3270

Cited by 212 publications

(187 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…This is exemplified by the work of Thorne et al (2016Thorne et al ( , 2018 for several wetland sites in southern California including Upper Newport Bay, Mugu Lagoon, and Tijuana River Estuary. To date, local insights are best acquired through finescale SLR assessments conducted for individual wetland sites.…”

Section: Model Uncertainty and Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating regional resiliency of coastal wetlands to sea level rise through hypsometry‐based modeling

Doughty

Cavanaugh

Ambrose

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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Sea level rise (SLR) threatens coastal wetlands worldwide, yet the fate of individual wetlands will vary based on local topography, wetland morphology, sediment dynamics, hydrologic processes, and plant‐mediated feedbacks. Local variability in these factors makes it difficult to predict SLR effects across wetlands or to develop a holistic regional perspective on SLR response for a diversity of wetland types. To improve regional predictions of SLR impacts to coastal wetlands, we developed a model that addresses the scale‐dependent factors controlling SLR response and accommodates different levels of data availability. The model quantifies SLR‐driven habitat conversion within wetlands across a region by predicting changes in individual wetland hypsometry. This standardized approach can be applied to all wetlands in a region regardless of data availability, making it ideal for modeling SLR response across a range of scales. Our model was applied to 105 wetlands in southern California that spanned a broad range of typology and data availability. Our findings suggest that if wetlands are confined to their current extents, the region will lose 12% of marsh habitats (vegetated marsh and unvegetated flats) with 0.6 m of SLR (projected for 2050) and 48% with 1.7 m of SLR (projected for 2100). Habitat conversion was more drastic in wetlands with larger proportions of marsh habitats relative to subtidal habitats and occurred more rapidly in small lagoons relative to larger sites. Our assessment can inform management of coastal wetland vulnerability, improve understanding of the SLR drivers relevant to individual wetlands, and highlight significant data gaps that impede SLR response modeling across spatial scales. This approach augments regional SLR assessments by considering spatial variability in SLR response drivers, addressing data gaps, and accommodating wetland diversity, which will provide greater insights into regional SLR response that are relevant to coastal management and restoration efforts.

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Section: Model Uncertainty and Sensitivitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating regional resiliency of coastal wetlands to sea level rise through hypsometry‐based modeling

Doughty

Cavanaugh

Ambrose

et al. 2018

Global Change Biology

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“…; Thorne et al. ). Increased salinity is likely to increase organic matter mineralization and decrease productivity, which can alter the balance between marsh erosion and accretion, as well as the quality of the habitat.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…; USEPA , b; Thorne et al. ). Others, however, suggest some resilience due to accretion or inland migration (Kirwan and Megonigal ; Hopkinson et al.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Review of Water Quality Responses to Air Temperature and Precipitation Changes 1: Flow, Water Temperature, Saltwater Intrusion

Paul

Coffey

Stamp

et al. 2018

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Anticipated future increases in air temperature and regionally variable changes in precipitation will have direct and cascading effects on United States (U.S.) water quality. In this paper, and a companion paper by Coffey et al., we review technical literature addressing the responses of different water quality attributes to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk to inform management responses, and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Here we focus on potential changes in streamflow, water temperature, and salt water intrusion (SWI). Projected changes in the volume and timing of streamflow vary regionally, with general increases in northern and eastern regions of the U.S., and decreases in the southern Plains, interior Southwest, and parts of the Southeast. Water temperatures have increased throughout the U.S. and are expected to continue to increase in the future, with the greatest changes in locations where high summer air temperatures occur together with low streamflow volumes. In coastal areas, especially the mid‐Atlantic and Gulf coasts, SWI to rivers and aquifers could be exacerbated by sea level rise, storm surges, and altered freshwater runoff. Management responses for reducing risks to water quality should consider strategies and practices robust to a range of potential future conditions.

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“…For instance, seagrass, a potentially important biogenic habitat that can be found in estuaries, has declined in area by 7% per year over the last two decades (Waycott et al, ). Wetland and marsh habitats are also projected to decline by 83% in some north‐eastern Pacific estuaries by 2110 due to sea‐level rise (Thorne et al, ). Given that estuaries may provide nursery habitat for a diversity of fish species (Able, ; Beck et al, ; Nagelkerken et al, ), there is a time‐sensitive need to further understand the nature of habitat for species of conservation or management concern to enable prioritization or protection of essential estuary habitats.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estuary habitat associations for juvenile Pacific salmon and pelagic fish: Implications for coastal planning processes

Sharpe

Carr‐Harris

Arbeider

et al. 2019

Aquatic Conservation

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Assessment of risk from industrial developments often relies on simple habitat descriptions for focal species. However, simple habitat metrics may not be accurate predictors of locations that species actually use. Understanding the nature of habitat is particularly pressing for estuaries, as they are among the most degraded ecosystems globally but provide critical rearing habitat for many species, including Pacific salmon. Canadian environmental impact assessment approaches use simple habitat‐type models to assess risk from developments and assume that different species of salmon rely on the same habitat. This study asked what combination of habitat type and biophysical covariates best predicted use of estuary habitat by juvenile salmon and two dominant small pelagic fish. Fish were sampled via purse seine throughout the Skeena River estuary (British Columbia, Canada) for 2 years across different habitat types (eelgrass, open water, sandy banks, and rocky shores). Simple habitat‐type models were compared with models with more complex biophysical variables to predict the variability in relative abundance of juvenile Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch), and sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) salmon, along with pelagic fish species Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) and surf smelt (Hypomesus pretiosus). The combination of variables that best predicted abundance differed across fish species. Pelagic fish were associated with near‐shore sites, increased temperature (herring), and increased salinity (smelt). Juvenile coho and sockeye salmon (but not Chinook), were more abundant in higher turbid waters. Chinook and sockeye salmon used eelgrass habitat more frequently than other habitat types, whereas coho salmon were more abundant in areas with high macroalgae cover. Models with these variables had greater predictive power than those using habitat type alone for juvenile salmon. Simple classifications of estuary habitat currently used in environmental risk assessment may not reflect the complex nature of fish–habitat associations. Understanding biophysical factors associated with estuary fish abundance can inform management of estuary habitat to support their nursery function for important fish.

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U.S. Pacific coastal wetland resilience and vulnerability to sea-level rise

Abstract: A comprehensive field and modeling study indicates vulnerability of tidal wetlands to sea-level rise on the U.S. Pacific coast.

Cited by 212 publications

References 48 publications

Evaluating regional resiliency of coastal wetlands to sea level rise through hypsometry‐based modeling

Evaluating regional resiliency of coastal wetlands to sea level rise through hypsometry‐based modeling

A Review of Water Quality Responses to Air Temperature and Precipitation Changes 1: Flow, Water Temperature, Saltwater Intrusion

Estuary habitat associations for juvenile Pacific salmon and pelagic fish: Implications for coastal planning processes

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