Abstract:In the United States (US), family forest owners, a group that includes individuals, families, trusts, and estates, are the largest single landowner category, owning approximately one-third of the nation's forests. These landowners' individualized decision-making on forest management has a profound impact on US forest cover and function at both local and regional scales. We sought to understand perceptions among family forest specialists of: climate impacts and adaptation options across different forested US re… Show more
“…GCM output from two radiative forcing scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, was used to explore forest responses to different climate futures. RCP4.5 represents a moderate emissions pathway involving significant mitigation, while RCP8.5 represents a business-as-usual scenario with unchecked emissions (van Vuuren et al, 2011). These scenarios cover a range of emissions trajectories, facilitating comparisons to other studies.…”
Successful implementation of forest management as a Nature-based Climate Solution is
dependent on the durability of management-induced changes in forest carbon storage and
sequestration. As forests face unprecedented stability risks in the face of ongoing climate change,
much remains unknown regarding how management will impact forest stability, or how
interactions with climate might shift the response of forests to management across
spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used a process-based model to simulate multi-decadal
projections of forest dynamics in response to changes in management and climate. Simulations
were conducted across gradients in forest type, edaphic factors, and management intensity under
two alternate radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This allowed for the
quantification of forest stability shifts in response to climate change, and the role of management
in modulating that response, where ecosystem stability is characterized as the resilience and
temporal stability of net primary production, aboveground biomass, and soil carbon. Our results
indicate that forest structure is primarily shaped by management, but the same management
strategy often produced divergent structures over time, due to interactions with regional climate
change. We found that management can be used to increase stability and minimize the release of
stored carbon by reducing mortality, but also highlight the regional dependency of
management-induced changes in resilience to climate change.
“…GCM output from two radiative forcing scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, was used to explore forest responses to different climate futures. RCP4.5 represents a moderate emissions pathway involving significant mitigation, while RCP8.5 represents a business-as-usual scenario with unchecked emissions (van Vuuren et al, 2011). These scenarios cover a range of emissions trajectories, facilitating comparisons to other studies.…”
Successful implementation of forest management as a Nature-based Climate Solution is
dependent on the durability of management-induced changes in forest carbon storage and
sequestration. As forests face unprecedented stability risks in the face of ongoing climate change,
much remains unknown regarding how management will impact forest stability, or how
interactions with climate might shift the response of forests to management across
spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used a process-based model to simulate multi-decadal
projections of forest dynamics in response to changes in management and climate. Simulations
were conducted across gradients in forest type, edaphic factors, and management intensity under
two alternate radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This allowed for the
quantification of forest stability shifts in response to climate change, and the role of management
in modulating that response, where ecosystem stability is characterized as the resilience and
temporal stability of net primary production, aboveground biomass, and soil carbon. Our results
indicate that forest structure is primarily shaped by management, but the same management
strategy often produced divergent structures over time, due to interactions with regional climate
change. We found that management can be used to increase stability and minimize the release of
stored carbon by reducing mortality, but also highlight the regional dependency of
management-induced changes in resilience to climate change.
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