Typhoon Fragility Analysis and Climate Change Impact Assessment of Filipino Cultural Heritage Asset Roofs

Abstract

Cultural Heritage (CH) assets are especially vulnerable to natural hazards (e.g., earthquake-induced ground shaking, typhoon-induced strong wind, and flooding) due to the lack of hazard-resistant features and to aging-induced extensive structural degradation. These considerations, together with their high historical/cultural value, justify the prioritization/implementation of disaster risk reduction (DRR) and resilience-enhancing strategies for the preservation of such assets. This paper proposes a probabilistic, simulation-based framework for the derivation of wind fragility relationships for CH roofs. Roof-panel pullout and pullover failure modes are used to model the progressive failure of the roof system, thus enabling the integration of fastener corrosion effects and load redistribution into the proposed fragility model. Monte-Carlo sampling is used to propagate the uncertainties related to wind-induced demands and roof component (i.e., fasteners and panels) capacities. Climate projections are used to assess the impact of climate change on wind hazard variations, and ultimately on the asset wind risk profile over time. An illustrative application of the proposed procedure is presented with reference to 25 heritage buildings in Iloilo City, Philippines.