Types of strong earthquake precursor behavior obtained from world and regional catalogs of earthquakes

Abstract

Typical features of seismicity inherent to the period prior to the strong earthquake occurrence are examined using the regional and world-wide earthquake catalogs by the method of construction of the Generalized vicinity of a large earthquake (GVLE). These features are foreshock power-law cascade, the weak long-term background increase in seismic activity, and the definite clustering of the main events. Worth to note, that all these features appear to indicate the loss of a stability of a system, without any reference to the physical mechanism of development of the instability. Thus, these features are expected to occur in connection with the bifurcation points in systems of other physical nature, examples of such behavior are given. Besides, a tendency of a decrease in earthquakes depth in the close GVLE vicinity was found. This precursor feature has a specific character and evidences in favor of a fluid involvement in the mechanism of earthquake occurrence.