Estuarine exchange flow governs the interaction between oceans and estuaries and thus plays a large role in their biogeochemical processes. This study investigates the variability in estuarine exchange flow due to offshore oceanic conditions including upwelling/downwelling, and the presence of a river plume offshore (from a neighboring estuary). We address these processes via numerical simulations at the mouth of the Salish Sea, a large estuarine system in the Northeast Pacific. An analysis of the Total Exchange Flow indicates that during the upwelling season, the exchange flow is fairly consistent in magnitude and oriented in a positive (into the estuary at depth and out at the surface) direction. However, during periods of downwelling favorable winds, the exchange flow shows significantly more variability including multiple reversals, consistent with observations, and surface intrusions of the Columbia River plume which originates 250 km to the south. Numerical along‐strait momentum budgets show that the exchange flow is forced dominantly by the pressure gradients, particularly the baroclinic. The pressure gradient is modified by Coriolis and sometimes advection, highlighting the importance of geostrophy and local adjustments. In experiments conducted without the offshore river plume, reversals still occur but are weaker, and the baroclinic pressure gradient plays a reduced role. These results suggest that estuaries along strong upwelling coastlines should experience significant modulation in the exchange flow during upwelling versus downwelling conditions. Additionally, they highlight the importance of nearby estuaries impacting one‐another, not only in terms of connectivity, but also altering the exchange flow.