Two methods to forecast auroral displays

Sigernes, F.; Dyrland, M. E.; Brekke, P.; Chernouss, S. A.; Lorentzen, D. A.; Oksavik, K.; Deehr, C. S.

doi:10.1051/swsc/2011003

Cited by 29 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…This model relates a certain Kp‐index to position and size of the auroral oval. With the formulas mentioned in Holzworth & Meng () and Sigernes et al () we are able to calculate the poleward and the equatorward boundary of the oval for different Kp‐indices. We used the southernmost/northernmost extent (equatorward/poleward boundary) for comparison with our data.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variation of the auroral oval size and offset for different magnetic activity levels described by the Kp‐index

Wagner¹,

Neuhäuser²

2019

Astron Nachr

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The understanding of the behavior of the auroral oval is crucial for the correct reconstruction of its size and location during past centuries by using historical aurora sightings. Therefore, we investigated the radius of the intensity maximum of the oval as well as the offset from the geomagnetic poles for different magnetic activity levels described by the Kp‐index. The Spin‐Scan Auroral Imager mounted on the Dynamics Explorer 1 satellite provides image data from 1981 to 1991, which were used for this purpose. Geometrical analysis of the oval's intensity maximum for each image, transformed into quasi‐dipole coordinates, gives the center of the oval and its radius. The results show a linear dependence between the Kp‐index and radius and a nearly constant shift of the oval center toward the midnight sector of around 4.5°. Furthermore, the images show that the Holzworth mathematical model underestimates the size of the auroral oval in the dawn and dusk sector especially for high magnetic activities.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variation of the auroral oval size and offset for different magnetic activity levels described by the Kp‐index

Wagner¹,

Neuhäuser²

2019

Astron Nachr

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“…Determination of the auroral oval size and location as a function of geomagnetic activity indices has been extensively studied in the last several decades [ Holzworth and Meng , ; Starkov , ; Kauristie , ; Carbary , , Zhang and Paxton , ; Sigernes et al ., , ]. Early works usually utilized the single‐variable regression analysis method with the regressor being a certain geomagnetic index binned and averaged over a few intervals.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sigernes et al . [] compared the two methods introduced by Starkov [] and Zhang and Paxton [], which were used to mathematically calculate the size and location of the auroral ovals as a function of ranged values of Kp index. However, these geomagnetic activity indices only demonstrate the status of auroral oval and could not indicate the physical origin and dynamic mechanisms which directly result in the motion of the auroral boundaries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variation and modeling of ultraviolet auroral oval boundaries associated with interplanetary and geomagnetic parameters

Yang

Liang

et al. 2017

Space Weather

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A large data set of auroral poleward/equatorward boundary, which are automatically identified from more than 60,000 images acquired by Polar ultraviolet imager, is used to study the variation of auroral boundaries associated with the interplanetary/geomagnetic environments and dynamic parameters of the magnetosphere. A total number of 3,805,000/1,215,000 points for poleward/equatorward boundary were identified from the data set. It is found that the poleward/equatorward boundaries show an equatorward movement with the increase of Kan‐Lee electric field. The poleward/equatorward boundaries in the nightside sector (1800–0600 magnetic local time (MLT)) show an equatorward motion with the increase of the value of IMF By and the north‐south electric field. The equatorward boundary (1800–0300 MLT) shows a quasi‐linear equatorward displacement with the increase of solar wind dynamic pressure and speed. The poleward boundary (excluding midday sector) and equatorward boundary expand equatorward with the increase of AE index. The auroral oval boundary model with input parameters of the three components of IMF, solar wind speed and density, and AE is developed by using multivariate regression method. Evaluation of the model shows that the mean absolute deviation of the model in every MLT sector is 1.3–2.1° magnetic latitude (MLAT) for the poleward boundary and 1.3–2.5° MLAT for the equatorward boundary, respectively, when input parameters are within valid value coverage (three components of IMF are each from −8 to +8 nT, and the values of solar wind speed and density, and AE are not more than 550 km/s, 20/cm−3, and 520 nT, respectively).

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“…Proton precipitation are mostly confined to the polar domain, which is not crossed by the propagation path used in this investigation (Iceland -NW Germany). Different approaches to predict the auroral oval were summarized by Sigernes et al (2011).…”

Section: Energetic Electron Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Remote sensing and modeling of energetic electron precipitation into the lower ionosphere using VLF/LF radio waves and field aligned current data

Schmitter

2015

Adv. Radio Sci.

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Abstract.A model for the development of electron density height profiles based on space time distributed ionization sources and reaction rates in the lower ionosphere is described. Special attention is payed to the definition of an auroral oval distribution function for energetic electron energy input into the lower ionosphere based on a Maxwellian energy spectrum. The distribution function is controlled by an activity parameter which is defined proportional to radio signal amplitude disturbances of a VLF/LF transmitter. Adjusting the proportionality constant allows to model precipitation caused VLF/LF signal disturbances using radio wave propagation calculations and to scale the distribution function. Field aligned current (FAC) data from the new Swarm satellite mission are used to constrain the spatial extent of the distribution function. As an example electron precipitation bursts during a moderate substorm on the 12 April 2014 (midnight-dawn) are modeled along the subauroral propagation path from the NFR/TFK transmitter (37.5 kHz, Iceland) to a midlatitude site.

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Two methods to forecast auroral displays

Cited by 29 publications

References 13 publications

Variation of the auroral oval size and offset for different magnetic activity levels described by the Kp‐index

Variation of the auroral oval size and offset for different magnetic activity levels described by the Kp‐index

Variation and modeling of ultraviolet auroral oval boundaries associated with interplanetary and geomagnetic parameters

Remote sensing and modeling of energetic electron precipitation into the lower ionosphere using VLF/LF radio waves and field aligned current data

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