Turning Points in the U.S. Civil War: Views from the Grayback Market

Abstract

This article introduces a new high‐frequency time series of Confederate money prices taken from the newspapers of Richmond and leading cities in the Eastern Confederacy. The new grayback series is tested for turning points. The empirical analysis suggests that turning points in the Confederate grayback market were different from those identified in the Northern greenback market by Willard, Guinnane, and Rosen (1996). It appears that war did not always have symmetric effects on Northern and Southern money prices. Financial and commercial matters fluctuate under the successes and reverses of the war like ebb and tide, and it is not to be wondered that under the great military events that are now transpiring [Gettysburg], there should be a suspension of operations in [gold] trade. (Richmond Examiner July 9. 1863. p. 1)

Domino Secessions: Evidence from the U.S

“…As in our paper, one branch utilizes data from bond markets. Federal bonds and Confederate bonds are used to assess what financial markets deemed as "turning points" and key battles during the Civil War (Burdekin and Weidenmier, 2001;Weidenmier, 2002;McCandless, 1996;Willard et al, 1996;Davis and Pecquet, 1990;Brown and Burdekin, 2000). Our paper complements this research by drawing attention to the events prior to the outbreak of war and focusing on the secession process.…”