TÜRKİYE’DE ENFLASYONUN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: ARDL SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI (2006:Q1-2018:Q2 DÖNEMİ) / Determinants of Inflation in Turkey: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach (2006:Q1-2018:Q2 Period)

Alev, Nigar

doi:10.29216/ueip.471966

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Its impact is very strong on wheat and maize despite being comparatively slightly effective on olive oil inflation. Even if there is no consensus about the impact of GDP on food inflation, our findings are consistent with the majority of the literature [17,70,75]. Although its sizeable impact is found only on wheat inflation in the long term, the exchange rate is a crucial driver for the analysis of food inflation.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…The determinants in a general context are mostly identified as the exchange rate, consumer price index (CPI) or food price index, GDP, and money supply [35,37,[74][75][76][77]. On the other hand, findings obtained by Tay Bayramoglu and Koc Yurtkur [74] show that the dollar and euro exchange rate are the most important international factors affecting food industry prices in the short term.…”

Section: Literature On Türkiyementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Similarly, Sahin Kutlu [77] and Demirkilic et al [37] highlight the significance of the exchange rate on food prices. Alev [75] asserts that while inflation is positively affected by the interest rate applied to money supply, budget deficit, and general purpose loans in the long run, it is positively affected only by the money supply and budget deficit (balance) variables in the short run. Aytekin and Hatirli [76] emphasize the significance of the import unit variable of food production on unprocessed food inflation.…”

Section: Literature On Türkiyementioning

confidence: 99%

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Unraveling the Major Determinants behind Price Changes in Four Selected Representative Agricultural Products

Tandogan Aktepe,

Kayral

2024

Agriculture

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This study aims to analyze the drivers behind price changes in agricultural products in Türkiye from 2002 to 2021, considering the impacts of three crises of different causes which are the global food crisis, the Russia–Türkiye aircraft crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The potential factors are categorized into four subgroups: governmental effects, agricultural inputs, macroeconomic indicators, and climatic conditions. The selected agricultural goods for price change measurement include wheat and maize representing subsistence goods, and olive oil and cotton as marketing goods. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is applied to observe both the short- and long-term impacts of the variables on price developments. The results suggest that government effectiveness, regulatory quality, nitrogen use, water price, money supply, exchange rate, and GDP under the related categories are the most effective factors in price changes. Among the variables under the category of climatic conditions, significant values are obtained only in the analysis of the temperature impact on olive oil. The analysis also reveals the variable impact of crises on the prices of the chosen products, depending on the goods involved. The maize and wheat analyses yield particularly noteworthy results. In the long run, nitrogen use demonstrates a substantial positive impact, registering at 29% for wheat and 19.47% for maize, respectively. Conversely, GDP exhibits a significant negative impact, with 26.15% and 20.08%. Short-term observations reveal that a unit increase in the governmental effect leads to a reduction in inflation for these products by 17.01% and 21.42%. However, changes in regulatory quality result in an increase in inflation by 25.45% and 20.77% for these products, respectively.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Literature On Türkiyementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature On Türkiyementioning

confidence: 99%

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Unraveling the Major Determinants behind Price Changes in Four Selected Representative Agricultural Products

Tandogan Aktepe,

Kayral

2024

Agriculture

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“…Central Banks try to control the aggregate demand and therefore the price level with money supply management. Thus, in the monetary targeting strategy, is assumed that there is a strong relationship between the money supply and the general level of prices over aggregate demand (Akbakay, 2016: 78) 4 According to the research conducted by Hannsgen (2004), the fact that interest rates are a fundamental variable affecting production costs reveals the existence of a "cost-push" channel in the transmission of Monetary Policies 5 .…”

Section: Literature Review and The Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Price Stability Target of the Central Bank and Its Interest Policy Case Study of North Macedonia

Dervishi,

Mustafai

2023

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Continuous increase in the general level of prices or excessive volatility are among the most important problems of the economy. If the price stability is considered as the main objective in monetary policy, first of all, the factors causing instability in the general level of prices should be identified and then appropriate monetary policy tools should be used.The main objective of the Central Bank of North Macedonia, set by law, is to ensure the price stability. To achieve the final target, the Central Bank sets the intermediate target of monetary policy. The Central Bank since January 2002 has been implementing a fixed exchange rate strategy against the Euro. Therefore, ensuring the stability of the exchange rate is one of the intermediate objectives of monetary policy. While the effects of the COVID 19 pandemic were overcome in 2021, the global food crisis that broke out in 2022 affected the whole world, while the North Macedonian Economy experienced high price increases that have not been seen for many years. As a matter of fact, the country reached double-digit inflation in 2022. Inflationary pressures in the economy are mainly caused by the prices of products in which food and energy have a high share in the consumption basket. Due to the increase in prices, the Central Bank of North Macedonia has gradually narrowed its monetary policy since 2022. As a contractionary monetary policy instrument, additional measures were taken in compulsory reserves, particularly in interest rates. In order to ensure the price stability, the monetary policies implemented should be supported by fiscal policies. The government's taking parallel steps with the central bank in this regard will reduce the pressure on prices.

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Determinants of Inflation in Turkey

KOLCU¹

2023

Hitit Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi

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Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye ekonomisinde enflasyonun belirleyicilerini ekonometrik olarak araştırmaktır. 2006-2021 dönemini analiz eden çalışmada döviz kuru, faiz oranı, reel para arzı, bütçe açığı ve cari açığın enflasyon oranı üzerindeki etkisi Adımsal (Stepwise) regresyon, Vektör Otoregresyon (VAR) ve Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif (ARDL) model olmak üzere üç farklı zaman serisi tekniği altında tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre, döviz kuru hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde enflasyon oranı üzerinde doğru yönlü etki yaratmaktadır. Reel para arzındaki değişim her iki dönemde de enflasyonu ters yönlü etkilemektedir. Faiz oranı enflasyonu doğru yönlü etkilemektedir. Ancak bu etki marjinal olarak düşüktür. Bütçe açığı kısa dönemde enflasyonu etkilemekle birlikte uzun dönemde enflasyon üzerinde belirleyici değildir. Çalışmada cari açığın enflasyon üzerinde belirleyici olduğuna dair güçlü bulgular elde edilmemiştir. 2006-2021 döneminde ele alınan değişkenler itibariyle Türkiye ekonomisinde uzun dönemde enflasyon üzerinde istatistiksel olarak en etkili faktör döviz kurundaki değişimlerdir.

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TÜRKİYE’DE ENFLASYONUN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: ARDL SINIR TESTİ YAKLAŞIMI (2006:Q1-2018:Q2 DÖNEMİ) / Determinants of Inflation in Turkey: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach (2006:Q1-2018:Q2 Period)

Cited by 8 publications

References 23 publications

Unraveling the Major Determinants behind Price Changes in Four Selected Representative Agricultural Products

Unraveling the Major Determinants behind Price Changes in Four Selected Representative Agricultural Products

Price Stability Target of the Central Bank and Its Interest Policy Case Study of North Macedonia

Determinants of Inflation in Turkey

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