Turkish Soft Balancing Against the EU? An Analysis of the Prospects for Improved Transatlantic Security Relations

Changing responses to a frozen conflict: The Republic of Cyprus soft balancing vis-à-vis Turkey

“…Analyzing Turkey's response to the Cyprus conflict demonstrates the key role of Turkey's nonimplementation of the Additional Protocol and non-recognition of the RoC for the region's wider security landscape. Even though Turkey signed the Additional Protocol in 2005 and agreed to extend the Ankara Agreement to the new EU members admitted in 2004 (including the RoC), 12 it refuses to ratify it (Dursun-Özkanca, 2017(Dursun-Özkanca, , 2019. As put by a Turkish policymaker (Interviewee #3), Turkey has sensitivities that 'direct negotiations' with the RoC might 'amount to official recognition.…”

“…Nevertheless, Turkey continues to advocate for TC rights (Interviewee #40). It demands that unless the RoC opens the ports/airports, allows direct trade with the north (Interviewees #3 and #11), and removes its economic isolation of the TRNC (Interviewee #5), Turkish airports/ports would remain inaccessible to vessels and planes from Cyprus (Dursun-Özkanca, 2017(Dursun-Özkanca, , 2019. Despite the EU's attempts, the ports/airports issue remains unresolved (Interviewee #1).…”

“…Hard balancing typically involves using military capabilities and creating or maintaining formal alliances, whereas soft balancing is exercised through using diplomacy, international organizations, and economic statecraft (Dursun-Özkanca, 2017(Dursun-Özkanca, , 2019Paul, 2005;Saltzman, 2012;Whitaker, 2010). Soft balancing is particularly successful in power asymmetries (Kelley, 2005).…”

“…As another GC interviewee (Interviewee #8) notes, 'The number one goal of Cypriot foreign policy is to be recognized by Turkey.' However, the official Turkish position on this question is drastically different, as it holds that for the PfP application of the RoC to be considered, first and foremost, the Cyprus problem would need to be resolved (Dursun-Özkanca, 2017(Dursun-Özkanca, , 2019Interviewee #23).…”

“…Entangling diplomacy refers to using the rules and procedures of international institutions to influence the counterpart's foreign policy. 14 It occurs when states seek to restructure an asymmetrical situation by constraining the alternatives of stronger states (Dursun-Özkanca, 2017(Dursun-Özkanca, , 2019Kelley, 2005). The RoC uses entangling diplomacy and takes advantage of the EU's formal procedures to influence Turkey's policies in its favor, especially regarding conflict resolution.…”