Tuberculosis burden caused by migrant population in Eastern China: evidence from notification records in Zhejiang Province during 2013–2017

Liu, Kui; Chen, Songhua; Zhang, Yu; Li, Tao; Xie, Bo; Wang, Wei; Wang, Fei; Peng, Ying; Ai, Liyun; Bin, Chen; Wang, Xiaomeng; Jiang, Jianmin

doi:10.1186/s12879-022-07071-5

Cited by 15 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Zhejiang Province is in the eastern region of China with a permanent population of 64.57 million in 2020, which covers an area of 100,000 square km, including plains, mountains, seashores, islands, and lakes ( 15 ). There are two sub-provincial cities of Hangzhou and Ningbo, and nine prefecture-level cities, including Wenzhou, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Jiaxing, Taizhou, Quzhou, Jinhua, Lishui, and Zhoushan ( 16 ). There are a total of 90 counties/cities within the Zhejiang Province.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial–temporal analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis among students in the Zhejiang Province of China from 2007–2020

Zhang

Chen²,

Luo³

et al. 2023

Front. Public Health

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BackgroundPulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a serious chronic communicable disease that causes a significant disease burden in China; however, few studies have described its spatial epidemiological features in students.MethodsData of all notified PTB cases from 2007 to 2020 in the student population were collected in the Zhejiang Province, China using the available TB Management Information System. Analyses including time trend, spatial autocorrelation, and spatial–temporal analysis were performed to identify temporal trends, hotspots, and clustering, respectively.ResultsA total of 17,500 PTB cases were identified among students in the Zhejiang Province during the study period, accounting for 3.75% of all notified PTB cases. The health-seeking delay rate was 45.32%. There was a decreasing trend in PTB notifications throughout the period; clustering of cases was seen in the western area of Zhejiang Province. Additionally, one most likely cluster along with three secondary clusters were identified by spatial–temporal analysis.ConclusionAlthough was a downward trend in PTB notifications among students during the time period, an upward trend was seen in bacteriologically confirmed cases since 2017. The risk of PTB was higher among senior high school and above than of junior high school. The western area of Zhejiang Province was the highest PTB risk settings for students, and more comprehensive interventions should be strengthened such as admission screening and routine health monitoring to improve early identification of PTB.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial–temporal analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis among students in the Zhejiang Province of China from 2007–2020

Zhang

Chen²,

Luo³

et al. 2023

Front. Public Health

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“…This study was focused on Zhejiang Province, which is in the eastern region of China and comprises the following cities: Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing, Jinhua, Quzhou, Zhoushan, Taizhou, and Lishui. Its location and demographic information have been presented in previous studies [ 12 , 13 ]. Additionally, according to the latest data released by the Zhejiang Bureau of Statistics, there were 65.4 million permanent residents, of which 9.26 million were aged ≥65 years and accounted for 14.2% of the provincial population.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bridging the Gap in End Tuberculosis Targets in the Elderly Population in Eastern China: Observational Study From 2015 to 2020

Liu¹,

Xie²,

Xie³

et al. 2022

JMIR Public Health Surveill

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Background With a progressive increase in the aging process, the challenges posed by pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) are also increasing for the elderly population. Objective This study aimed to identify the epidemiological distribution of PTB among the elderly, forecast the achievement of the World Health Organization’s 2025 goal in this specific group, and predict further advancement of PTB in the eastern area of China. Methods All notified active PTB cases aged ≥65 years from Zhejiang Province were screened and analyzed. The general epidemiological characteristics were depicted and presented using the ArcGIS software. Further prediction of PTB was performed using R and SPSS software programs. Results Altogether 41,431 cases aged ≥65 years were identified by the surveillance system from 2015 to 2020. After excluding extrapulmonary TB cases, we identified 39,832 PTB cases, including laboratory-confirmed (23,664, 59.41%) and clinically diagnosed (16,168, 40.59%) PTB. The notified PTB incidence indicated an evident downward trend with a reduction of 30%; however, the incidence of bacteriologically positive cases was steady at approximately 60/100,000. Based on the geographical distribution, Quzhou and Jinhua Cities had a higher PTB incidence among the elderly. The delay in PTB diagnosis was identified, and a significantly prolonged treatment course was observed in the elderly. Moreover, a 50% reduction of PTB incidence by the middle of 2024 was predicted using a linear regression model. It was found that using the exponential smoothing model would be better to predict the PTB trend in the elderly than a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model. Conclusions More comprehensive and effective interventions such as active PTB screening combined with physical checkup and succinct health education should be implemented and strengthened in the elderly. A more systematic assessment of the PTB epidemic trend in the elderly population should be considered to incorporate more predictive factors.

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“… and represent the autocorrelation coefficient from counties and , and represented the number of counties in Zhejiang Province. The spatial weight matrix = 1 represents that county is adjacent to county , and = 0 represents non-contiguous [ 14 ]. The Moran’s I Index ranged from − 1 to 1.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial spillover effect of environmental factors on the tuberculosis occurrence among the elderly: a surveillance analysis for nearly a dozen years in eastern China

Luo,

Wang,

Zhang

et al. 2024

BMC Public Health

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Background In many areas of China, over 30% of tuberculosis cases occur among the elderly. We aimed to investigate the spatial distribution and environmental factors that predicted the occurence of tuberculosis in this group. Methods Data were collected on notified pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases aged ≥ 65 years in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2021. We performed spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal scan statistics to determine the clusters of epidemics. Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) analysis was used to identify significant environmental factors and their spatial spillover effects. Results 77,405 cases of PTB among the elderly were notified, showing a decreasing trend in the notification rate. Spatial-temporal analysis showed clustering of epidemics in the western area of Zhejiang Province. The results of the SDM indicated that a one-unit increase in PM2.5 led to a 0.396% increase in the local notification rate. The annual mean temperature and precipitation had direct effects and spatial spillover effects on the rate, while complexity of the shape of the greenspace (SHAPE_AM) and SO2 had negative spatial spillover effects. Conclusion Targeted interventions among the elderly in Western Zhejiang may be more efficient than broad, province-wide interventions. Low annual mean temperature and high annual mean precipitation in local and neighboring areas tend to have higher PTB onset among the elderly.

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Tuberculosis burden caused by migrant population in Eastern China: evidence from notification records in Zhejiang Province during 2013–2017

Cited by 15 publications

References 35 publications

Spatial–temporal analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis among students in the Zhejiang Province of China from 2007–2020

Spatial–temporal analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis among students in the Zhejiang Province of China from 2007–2020

Bridging the Gap in End Tuberculosis Targets in the Elderly Population in Eastern China: Observational Study From 2015 to 2020

Spatial spillover effect of environmental factors on the tuberculosis occurrence among the elderly: a surveillance analysis for nearly a dozen years in eastern China

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