Tsunami Simulations in the Western Makran Using Hypothetical Heterogeneous Source Models from World’s Great Earthquakes

Rashidi, Amin; Shomali, Zaher Hossein; Farajkhah, Nasser Keshavarz

doi:10.1007/s00024-018-1842-9

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…The degree of slip heterogeneity and the location of greatest slip on the rupture area control the power of a tsunamigenic source [17]. Due to the lack of data and the unknown seismic status of the western Makran, there is not a clear idea about how slip may occur during possible future events.…”

Section: Earthquakesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, Makran is a shallow dip subduction zone which can lead to a wide seismogenic zone capable of generating offshore megathrust earthquakes with magnitudes from M w 8.7 to 9.2. The study of Smith et al [11] provides three potential megathrust rupture scenarios in the Makran region which were used in some tsunami hazard assessments (e.g., [17,56]). Analyzing modern and historical seismicity and sedimentary sections has provided important insights into the tsunami potential of the enigmatic western Makran [5]:…”

Section: Tsunami Hazard Assessment In the Makran Subduction Zonementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dividing the southeastern Iran into three western, middle and eastern subareas, they showed that the eastern area is more hazardous than the others. To evaluate near-field and far-field tsunami hazards from the western Makran, Rashidi et al [17] created a source model and developed a novel method to incorporate the slip heterogeneity using scaled slip distributions of some recent tsunamigenic earthquakes (i.e., 2006 Kuril Islands, 2011 Tohoku and 2015 Chile events) into the rupture area. Their results show that a 2011 Tohoku-type event by the western Makran rupture area can cause significant near-field and far-field tsunami hazards (c.f., Figure 8a).…”

Section: Modeling Of Hypothetical Tsunami Scenarios In the Makran Subduction Zonementioning

confidence: 99%

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A Review of Tsunami Hazards in the Makran Subduction Zone

et al. 2020

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The uncertain tsunamigenic potential of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) has made it an interesting natural laboratory for tsunami-related studies. This study aims to review the recent activities on tsunami hazard in the Makran subduction zone with a focus on deterministic and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments. While almost all studies focused on tsunami hazard from the Makran subduction thrust, other local sources such as splay faults and landslides can be also real threats in the future. Far-field tsunami sources such as Sumatra-Andaman and Java subduction zones, commonly lumped as the Sunda subduction zone, do not seem to pose a serious risk to the Makran coastlines. The tsunamigenic potential of the western segment of the MSZ should not be underestimated considering the new evidence from geological studies and lessons from past tsunamis in the world. An overview of the results of tsunami hazard studies shows that the coastal area between Kereti to Ormara along the shoreline of Iran-Pakistan and the coastal segment between Muscat and Sur along Oman’s shoreline are the most hazardous areas. Uncertainties in studying tsunami hazard for the Makran region are large. We recommend that future studies mainly focus on the role of thick sediments, a better understanding of the plates interface geometry, the source mechanism and history of extreme-wave deposits, the contribution of other local tsunamigenic sources and vulnerability assessment for all coastlines of the whole Makran region.

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Section: Earthquakesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Tsunami Hazard Assessment In the Makran Subduction Zonementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Modeling Of Hypothetical Tsunami Scenarios In the Makran Subduction Zonementioning

confidence: 99%

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A Review of Tsunami Hazards in the Makran Subduction Zone

et al. 2020

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“…Our definition of the credible worst-case tsunami scenario for Sur-Oman coast is based on available seismic information that leads to a Mw 8.8 earthquake corresponding to the rupture of the total segment of the eastern MSZ. Other researchers postulated worst-case scenario with higher magnitudes and longer rupture length (Smith et al 2013;Okal and Synolakis 2008;Heidarzadeh et al 2009;Rashidi et al 2018). Additionally, the event of November 27th, 1945, is considered due to its historical importance and the tsunami impact in the region.…”

Section: Deterministic Tsunami Hazard Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies appear to have ruled out the possibility of aseismic subduction and postulated that the fault is locked without conclusive evidences in hand (Smith et al 2013;Okal and Synolakis 2008;Heidarzadeh et al 2009;Rashidi et al 2018). Bayer et al (2006) argued that the absence of large earthquakes in the western Makran can be explained by the presence of a great amount of unconsolidated and water saturated weak sediments lubricating relative plate movement to constrain seismicity.…”

Section: Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic and deterministic estimates of near-field tsunami hazards in northeast Oman

et al. 2018

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Tsunamis generated along the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) threaten the Sur coast of Oman, according to deterministic and probabilistic analyses presented here. A validated shallow water numerical code simulates the sourceto-coast propagation and quantifies the coastal hazard in terms of maximum water level, flow depth, and inundation distance. The worst-case source assumed for the eastern MSZ is a thrust earthquake of Mw 8.8. This deterministic scenario produces simulated wave heights reaching 2.5 m on the Sur coast leading to limited coastal inundation extent. Because Oman adjoins the western MSZ, the probabilistic analysis includes the effect of this segment also. The probabilistic analysis shows onshore inundations exceeding 0.4 km northwest of Sur where flow depths are likely to exceed 1 m in 500 years. Probability analysis shows lesser inundation areas with probability of exceeding 1 m flow depth up to 80% in 500-year exposure time. Teletsunamis are excluded from these analyses because far-field waves of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami did not impact the Sur coast. Also excluded for simplicity are tsunamis generated by submarine slides within or near MSZ rupture areas. The results of this research provide essential information for coastal planning, engineering and management in terms of tsunami hazard and an essential step toward tsunami risk reductions in the northwest Indian Ocean.

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