Tsunami Impact Assessment and Vulnerability Index Development using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model and Geographic Information System (GIS) – A Study on Mie Prefecture, Japan

Abstract

Japan is highly prone to multiple natural hazards, such as typhoons, earthquakes, and tsunamis in general. However, the compound disaster that entailed earthquake, tsunami, and a nuclear crisis, along with disruption of the global supply chain triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, highlighted the need for a holistic risk assessment of impacts amplified by multiple disasters. According to the Cabinet Office of Japan, the occurrence probability of a Nankai Trough Earthquake and Tsunami is 70% within the next 30 years. It suggests the need for comprehensive impact assessment to enhance the disaster risk reduction strategies of the region. This study conducts a tsunami impact assessment using quantitative analysis to identify vulnerable industries in Mie Prefecture, Japan, famous for tourism, valueadded sectors of aquaculture, food processing, and petroleum refining tanks situated in at-risk areas. To create a tsunami shock scenario, we apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model using an input-output table of the Mie Prefecture (2015 version) and geographic information system (GIS). The street-level business entity data enable us to incorporate with the disaster scenario to provide evidence-based damage estimates of capital and labor loss due to a tsunami. We present the simulation results of output change, price change, external trade, and welfare analysis and propose creating a vulnerability index (VI) for disaster impact. These quantified and visualized indicators would provide informative implications for ex-ante policymaking and risk financing to cope with fragile sectors effectively.