Tsunami hazard in the Caribbean: Regional exposure derived from credible worst case scenarios

Harbitz, C. B.; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Bazin, Sara; Zamora, Natalia; Løvholt, Finn; Bungum, Hilmar; Smebye, Helge; Gauer, Peter; Kjekstad, Oddvar

doi:10.1016/j.csr.2012.02.006

Cited by 72 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…Future studies may investigate on the dependence of the final results on the choice of the regressions. In addition, by inverting the Hanks and Kanamori (1979) …”

Section: Tsunami Hazard Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Only 5 were caused by remote sources (namely the earthquakes of 1906 in Ecuador; 1957 in the Aleutian islands; 1960 and 2010 in Chile; 2011 in Japan), while the remaining are associated with local earthquakes that occurred at the Middle American Trench, in the fracture zone of the so-called Panama plate, at the boundaries of the North American and South American plates or are due to shallow faults. All of the tsunamis observed at the Caribbean coast of CA were associated with earthquakes (Fernández et al, 2000;Harbitz et al, 2012). Tsunamis associated with submarine landslides, terrestrial landslides or volcanic eruptions have not been reported in the area.…”

Section: Observed Tsunamismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indeed, given a well-defined earthquake source (fault geometry, co-seismic slip distribution, etc.) and a properly detailed bathymetry, one applies a tsunami model to compute the propagation of a tsunami, including amplification and run-up at certain coastal targets (see for example how to build and handle tsunami scenarios in Tinti et al, 2011; see also, among the others, Tinti and Armigliato, 2003;Tinti et al, 2005;Løvholt et al, 2006Løvholt et al, , 2012aLorito et al, 2008;Tonini et al, 2011;Harbitz et al, 2012). The full application of such a scheme requires a very large computational load if one likes to treat sources differing in magnitude, fault geometry, slip distribution and location, just to mention a few variables, since it implies handling a very large number of individual scenarios.…”

Section: Tsunami Hazard Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of tsunami hazards for the Central American Pacific coast from southern Mexico to northern Peru

Brizuela

Armigliato

Tinti

2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Central America (CA), from Guatemala to Panama, has been struck by at least 52 tsunamis between 1539 and 2013, and in the extended region from Mexico to northern Peru (denoted as ECA, Extended Central America in this paper) the number of recorded tsunamis in the same time span is more than 100, most of which were triggered by earthquakes located in the Middle American Trench that runs parallel to the Pacific coast. The most severe event in the catalogue is the tsunami that occurred on 2 September 1992 off Nicaragua, with run-up measured in the range of 5-10 m in several places along the Nicaraguan coast. The aim of this paper is to assess the tsunami hazard on the Pacific coast of this extended region, and to this purpose a hybrid probabilistic-deterministic analysis is performed, that is adequate for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. More specifically, the probabilistic approach is used to compute the Gutenberg-Richter coefficients of the main seismic tsunamigenic zones of the area and to estimate the annual rate of occurrence of tsunamigenic earthquakes and their corresponding return period. The output of the probabilistic part of the method is taken as input by the deterministic part, which is applied to calculate the tsunami run-up distribution along the coast.

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“…Future studies may investigate on the dependence of the final results on the choice of the regressions. In addition, by inverting the Hanks and Kanamori (1979) …”

Section: Tsunami Hazard Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Observed Tsunamismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Tsunami Hazard Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Assessment of tsunami hazards for the Central American Pacific coast from southern Mexico to northern Peru

Brizuela

Armigliato

Tinti

2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Previous studies (Smith and Shepherd 1996;Harbitz et al 2012) on landslide-generated tsunami hazards at KeJ are based on proposed, not calculated, values for the initial failed volume (0.01 and 0.6 km 3 , respectively). Dondin (pers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…22°s lope) of the eastern flank of the Grenada Basin. One potential consequence of a future collapse is the generation of a tsunami that could pose a significant hazard to some of the southern islands of the West Indies (Harbitz et al 2012;Dondin (pers. comm)).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flank instability assessment at Kick-’em-Jenny submarine volcano (Grenada, Lesser Antilles): a multidisciplinary approach using experiments and modeling

et al. 2016

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Kick-'em-Jenny (KeJ)-located ca. 8 km north of the island of Grenada-is the only active submarine volcano of the Lesser Antilles Volcanic Arc. Previous investigations of KeJ revealed that it lies within a collapse scar inherited from a past flank instability episode. To assess the likelihood of future collapse, we employ here a combined laboratory and modeling approach. Lavas collected using a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) provided samples to perform the first rock physical property measurements for the materials comprising the KeJ edifice. Uniaxial and triaxial deformation experiments showed that the dominant failure mode within the edifice host rock is brittle. Edifice fractures (such as those at Champagne Vent) will therefore assist the outgassing of the nearby magma-filled conduit, favoring effusive behavior. These laboratory data were then used as input parameters in models of slope stability. First, relative slope stability analysis revealed that the SW to N sector of the volcano displays a deficit of mass/volume with respect to a volcanoid (ideal 3D surface). Slope stability analysis using a limit equilibrium method (LEM) showed that KeJ is currently stable, since all values of stability factor or factor of safety (Fs) are greater than unity.The lowest values of Fs were found for the SW-NW sector of the volcano (the sector displaying a mass/volume deficit). Although currently stable, KeJ may become unstable in the future. Instability (severe reductions in Fs) could result, for example, from overpressurization due to the growth of a cryptodome. Our modeling has shown that instabilityinduced flank collapse will most likely initiate from the SW-NW sector of KeJ, therefore mobilizing a volume of at least ca. 0.7 km 3 . The mobilization of ca. 0.7 km 3 of material is certainly capable of generating a tsunami that poses a significant hazard to the southern islands of the West Indies.

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Composition, geometry, and emplacement dynamics of a large volcanic island landslide offshore Martinique: From volcano flank‐collapse to seafloor sediment failure?

Brunet

Friant

Boudon

et al. 2016

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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+33 (0) 1 83 95 76 38Key points: -First drilling into submarine landslide deposits offshore volcanic island -Large (300 km 3 ) submarine landslide deposit offshore Martinique comprises mainly deformed seafloor sediment, in a single frontally emergent morphology Research ArticleGeochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems DOI 10.1002/2015GC006034This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. 2 AbstractLandslides are common features in the vicinity of volcanic islands. In this contribution, we investigate landslides emplacement and dynamics around the volcanic island of Martinique based on the first scientific drilling of such deposits. The evolution of the active Montagne Pelée volcano on this island has been marked by three major flank-collapses that removed much of the western flank of the volcano. Subaerial collapse volumes vary from 2 to 25 km 3 and debris avalanches flowed into the Grenada Basin. High-resolution seismic data (AGUADOMAR -1999, CARAVAL -2002 and GWADASEIS -2009) is combined with new drill cores that penetrate up to 430 m through the three submarine landslide deposits previously associated to the aerial flank-collapses (Site U1399, Site U1400, Site U1401, IODP Expedition 340, Joides Resolution, March-April 2012). This combined geophysical and core data provide an improved understanding of landslide processes offshore a volcanicisland. The integrated analysis shows a large submarine landslide deposit, without debris avalanche deposits coming from the volcano, comprising up to 300 km 3 of remobilized seafloor sediment that extends for 70 km away from the coast and covers an area of 2100 km 2 .Our new data suggest that the aerial debris avalanche deposit enter the sea but stop at the base of submarine flank. We propose a new model dealing with seafloor sediment failures and landslide propagation mechanisms, triggered by volcanic flank-collapse events affecting Montagne Pelée volcano. Newly recognized landslide deposits occur deeper in the stratigraphy, suggesting the recurrence of large-scale mass-wasting processes offshore the island and thus, the necessity to better assess the associated tsunami hazards in the region.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. IntroductionFlank-instabilities are a recurrent process in the long-term evolution of many volcanoes [Siebert, 1984;McGuire, 1996]. Exceptionally large volcanic landslides have been recognized offshore oceanic intraplate islands such as Hawaii [Moore et al., 1989, Moore et al., 1994, the Canary Islands [Carracedo, 1999; Masson et al., 2002], La Réunion Island [Labazuy, 1996; Oehler et al., 2004Oehler et al., , 2008 and in subduction zones such as the LesserAntilles [Deplus et al., 2001; Le Friant et al., 2003a,b;Boudon et al., 2007]. The scale of some of these events exceeds the la...

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Tsunami hazard in the Caribbean: Regional exposure derived from credible worst case scenarios

Cited by 72 publications

References 58 publications

Assessment of tsunami hazards for the Central American Pacific coast from southern Mexico to northern Peru

Assessment of tsunami hazards for the Central American Pacific coast from southern Mexico to northern Peru

Flank instability assessment at Kick-’em-Jenny submarine volcano (Grenada, Lesser Antilles): a multidisciplinary approach using experiments and modeling

Composition, geometry, and emplacement dynamics of a large volcanic island landslide offshore Martinique: From volcano flank‐collapse to seafloor sediment failure?

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