Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

Abstract

Abstract. This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (M w 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan -including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal-vertical evacuation time maps -has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

Identification of Factors Influencing the Evacuation Walking Speed in Padang, Indonesia

“…Previously, on February 10, 1797, and November 24, 1833, tsunami was reported with a respectively 5 m and 3-4 m inundation high of tsunami [3]. Padang is predicted to face up to 15 m tsunami inundation shortly [7], [8], [9], [3]. McCloskey reported that an accumulation of a vast seismic moment deficit since 1797 and 1833 at the megathrust [3].…”

Penggunaan Foto Udara Format Kecil Untuk Identifikasi Kerentanan Lingkungan Terhadap Bencana Tsunami Di Yogyakarta International Airport (Yia)

“…Dalam perencanaan mitigasi bencana tsunami sistem evakuasi memegang peranan penting dalam meminimalkan risiko kehilangan jiwa manusia (Dewi, 2012;Muhammad et al, 2017). Fasilitas dan tempat evakuasi harus tersedia di daerah rawan bencana.…”

Comparing the evacuation speed through a ramp and a stair in a tsunami evacuation drill in Padang

“…McCloskey [3] reported that on February 10, 1797, and November 24, 1833, two earthquakes triggered a tsunami of 5 m and 3-4 m inundation high respectively. Furthermore, McCloskey and other scientists also predicted a huge seismic moment deficit accumulation since 1797 and 1833 at the megathrust which was predicted to trigger a 15 m tsunami inundation in Padang in the near future [3,6,7,8].…”