Tsunami Evacuation Model in the Panimbang Subdistrict, Banten Province, Indonesia: Gis- And Agent-Based Modeling

Abstract

This study examines the agent behavior during a complex tsunami process to reach designated shelters based on the agent-based modeling approach. A GIS-based tsunami inundation modeling is employed considering the land slope and surface roughness coefficient to estimate the tsunami height loss. This model becomes the basis for determining the service area within the study site. Five shelter candidates are assessed using agent-based modeling simulated in the NetLogo, implementing the 50 minutes ETA and 9 meters tsunami run-up propagation for four population age classifications. Overall, the Panimbang coastal area is categorized as a high vulnerability to tsunamis (14.68% of the total area), where the run-up propagation is extended due to the tsunami invading rivers, thereby increasing the risk toward local society. Of particular concern, two proposed shelters (SA1 and SA5) exceed the capacity by 12.43% and 59.44% of their maximum capacity, respectively. Of 9,640 agents (people) simulated, 77.7% are evacuated, and 22.3% fail to reach the shelters, with a majority of the adult category. A sufficiently high casualty number is due to a "bottleneck" in the overlapping service areas. However, reconsidering the overcapacity TES with some additional shelters in the surrounding area is recommended.