Truth or Dare? Detecting Systematic Manipulation of COVID-19 Statistics

Adiguzel, Fatih Serkant; Cansunar, Asli; Çörekçioğlu, Gözde

doi:10.1561/113.00000021

Cited by 31 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Kapoor et al (2020) , for example, analyzed the moving average of the reported number of deaths in authoritarian countries, revealing that the published data are likely to be unnaturally produced. Adiguzel et al (2020) also reported a similar result for the governmental statistics of digit-based tests.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 64%

“…Cassan and Steenvoort (2020) also have reported the null effect of the political regime variables after including various controls. Kapoor et al (2020) and Adiguzel et al (2020) detected through statistical inquiries the possibility that some authoritarian countries might have manipulated COVID-19 death data. The findings presented in the previous section further support this view, based on systematic cross-national analyses of the relationship between political regimes, data transparency, and COVID-19 deaths.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As suggested by the alternative view, namely “biassing autocracy,” it is possible that some authoritarian governments manipulate death data to overstate their successes in combatting COVID 19. Some studies have already highlighted this possibility through incisive but purely statistical inquiries ( Adiguzel et al, 2020 ; Kapoor et al, 2020 ). This paper turns instead to HRV Transparency Index ( Hollyer et al, 2014 ) as a substantive independent variable to capture the problems of data credibility across countries.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Political regime, data transparency, and COVID-19 death cases

Annaka

2021

SSM - Population Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The COVID-19—the worst pandemic since the Spanish flu—has dramatically changed the world, with a significant number of people suffering from and dying of the disease. Some scholars argue that democratic governments are disadvantaged in coping with the current pandemic mainly because they cannot intervene in their citizens' lives as aggressively as their authoritarian counterparts. Other scholars, however, suggest that possible data manipulation may account for the apparent advantage of authoritarian countries. Taking such a possibility seriously, this paper analyzes the relationship between political regimes, data transparency, and COVID-19 deaths using cross-national data for over 108 countries, obtained from Worldometer COVID-19 Data, Polity V Project, Variety of Democracy (V-Dem) Project, HRV Transparency Project among other sources. Regression analyses indicate that authoritarian countries do not necessarily tend to have fewer COVID-19 deaths than their democratic counterparts after controlling for other factors, especially data transparency. The transparency variable itself, on the other hand, is positively correlated with the number of death cases more consistently ( P <0.05). Overall, the estimation results point to the possible data manipulation, not the nature of regime characteristics itself, as a more significant source for the seemingly low casualty rates in authoritarian countries.

show abstract

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 64%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Political regime, data transparency, and COVID-19 death cases

Annaka

2021

SSM - Population Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, the veracity of data and accuracy of reports presented by China’s Communist Party had been the subject of critique for the entire duration of the pandemic. Scholars and governments questioned not only China’s methods of containing the pandemic but also the validity of information on Covid-related morbidity and mortality [ 20 , 21 ]. The non-democratic country has been accused of publishing imprecise and even fabricated statistical data to preserve its image on domestic and international scenes.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, the unfortunate incidents of suppressing whistleblowers in the healthcare system and authoritarian policies could have become the reason for data manipulations at the sub-national level [ 22 ]. As these manipulative reports by local governments consistently appeared in early 2020, PRC’s Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang indirectly confirmed suspicions of the international community [ 20 ]. Despite the apparent lack of integrity and insufficient accuracy of Chinese official statistics on Covid-19, the problem is not limited to this Asian country.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Role of Population Density during Pandemics—A Comparative Analysis of Saudi Arabia and China

Yusuf

Shesha

2021

IJERPH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

As a novel infection with relatively high contagiousness, the coronavirus disease emerged as the most pertinent threat to the global community in the twenty-first century. Due to Covid-19’s severe economic impacts, the establishment of reliable determining factors can help to alleviate future pandemics. While a population density is often cited as a major determinant of infectious cases and mortality rates, there are both proponents and opponents to this claim. In this framework, the study seeks to assess the role of population density as a predictor of Covid-19 cases and deaths in Saudi Arabia and China during the Covid-19 pandemic. With high infectivity and mortality being a definitive characteristic of overpopulated regions, the authors propose that Henry Kissinger’s population reduction theory can be applied as a control measure to control future pandemics and alleviate social concerns. If high-density Chinese regions are more susceptible to Covid-19 than low-density Saudi cities, the authors argue that Neo-Malthusian models can be used as a basis for reducing the impacts of the coronavirus disease on the economic growth in countries with low population density. However, the performed correlation analysis and simple linear regression produced controversial results with no clear connection between the three studied variables. By assessing population density as a determinant of health crises associated with multiple socio-economic threats and epidemiological concerns, the authors seek to reinvigorate the scholarly interest in Neo-Malthusian models as a long-term solution intended to mitigate future disasters. The authors recommend that future studies should explore additional confounding factors influencing the course and severity of infectious diseases in states with different population densities.

show abstract

Social-Psychology of Vaccine Intentions: The Mediating Role of Institutional Trust in the Fight Against Covid-19

Dal

Tokdemir

2022

Polit Behav

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Truth or Dare? Detecting Systematic Manipulation of COVID-19 Statistics

Cited by 31 publications

References 0 publications

Political regime, data transparency, and COVID-19 death cases

Political regime, data transparency, and COVID-19 death cases

Economic Role of Population Density during Pandemics—A Comparative Analysis of Saudi Arabia and China

Social-Psychology of Vaccine Intentions: The Mediating Role of Institutional Trust in the Fight Against Covid-19

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About