Trump’s “maximum pressure” and anti‐containment in Iran’s regional policy

Abstract

Two years after withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, U.S. President Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" campaign has failed to change Iran's regional behavior, bring Tehran back to the negotiation table, curb its nuclear and missile programs, and counter Iran's proxy influence in the region. Instead, Iran has adopted a "maximum resistance" strategy to deal with Washington's pressure. According to the Neorealist school of thought in International Relations (IR), rising systemic or structural pressure on a given state is expected to alter its policies or even its regime. The case of Iran appears to challenge this expectation. This article suggests that Iran has adopted an "anti-containment" strategy to deal with the U.S. pressure. The strategy is based on asymmetric deterrence, the main pillars of which are employing local allied forces and enhancing air and naval deterrence capabilities. Meanwhile, Iran's military-security establishment has gained the upper hand in dealing with the United States, sidelining the diplomatic apparatus. This situation bears the risk of a confrontation between Iran and the United States while leaving no space for meaningful diplomatic engagement.

When leadership traits meet historic success: Hassan Rouhani and the nuclear deal of 2015

“…As a leader who derives his strength from his flexibility, Rouhani stood out as a charismatic leader from the beginning with his capacity to affect both the decision makers and public opinion in Iran, igniting and managing a very delicate process that had the potential to reshape Iran's foreign policy. But things took a different turn when the Trump Administration withdrew the United States from the nuclear deal and reintroduced sanctions (Azizi et al., 2020). Rouhani criticized Trump's decision for not reflecting facts and quickly adapted to the new situation and defended Iran's rights in the deal, rejecting Trump’s calls to renegotiate.…”

The Policy of Maximum Pressure on Iran. US Policy Objectives and Effects

“…Instead, Iran has adopted a strategy of "maximum resistance" to confront Washington's pressure. Iran has adopted a defiance or better maximum resistance strategy to deal with US pressure (Azizi, Golmohammadi, andVazirian, 2020: 150-1666).…”

Regional deterrence, strategic challenges, and Saudi Arabia's missile development program

“…In the specific context of this article, which centers around Saudi missile activities and the factors influencing their strengthening and promotion, several distinct categories of resources can be identified. The first category primarily consists of sources that highlight missile development and its causes and effects in the Middle East, with a particular focus on Iran's behavior rather than Saudi Arabia and other rival nations (Ahmadian, 2021; Azizi et al, 2020; Eslami, 2021). Notably, a review of the literature on Middle East missile activities reveals that researchers tend to associate missile activity in the region primarily with Iran.…”