2021
DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021
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Tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 simulations

Abstract: Abstract. The evolution of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2100 has been studied using data from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We evaluate long-term changes using coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate models, focusing on the CMIP Historical and ScenarioMIP ssp370 experiments, for which detailed tropospheric-ozone diagnostics were archived. The model ensemble has been evaluated against a suite of surface, sonde and satellite observations of the past several decades and found… Show more

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Cited by 112 publications
(111 citation statements)
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References 128 publications
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“…The individual budget terms are all are consistent with the range of reported values from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) multi-model assessment (see Fig. 3 of Young et al, 2018), the CMIP6 models that performed interactive tropospheric chemistry (Griffiths et al, 2021), as well as the last extensive tropospheric ozone budget evaluation within the standard GEOS-Chem model (Hu et al, 2017). The E2.1 simulations are on the high end of the previously reported values due to the higher tropopause height in those simulations; the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere regions contribute strongly to each O x budget term due to the rapidly increasing abundances of ozone with altitude there.…”
Section: Ozonesupporting
confidence: 78%
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“…The individual budget terms are all are consistent with the range of reported values from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) multi-model assessment (see Fig. 3 of Young et al, 2018), the CMIP6 models that performed interactive tropospheric chemistry (Griffiths et al, 2021), as well as the last extensive tropospheric ozone budget evaluation within the standard GEOS-Chem model (Hu et al, 2017). The E2.1 simulations are on the high end of the previously reported values due to the higher tropopause height in those simulations; the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere regions contribute strongly to each O x budget term due to the rapidly increasing abundances of ozone with altitude there.…”
Section: Ozonesupporting
confidence: 78%
“…The E2.1 simulations are especially higher over the Amazon than either MERRA-2 or the observations. Comparisons of TCO to OMI/MLS are sensitive to uncertainties in the tropopause location in the satellite product versus the models (Griffiths et al, 2021). The E2.1 TCO are globally higher than the OMI/MLS product by 12 %, reflecting the lower tropopause pressures.…”
Section: Ozonementioning
confidence: 99%
“…3 had increased by ∼ 20 % from 1950 levels, and global model calculations (see discussion below) also find that NH ozone concentrations had increased significantly before the 1960s. Further, extremely elevated ozone concentrations (several 100 ppb) were observed in Los Angeles as early as the 1950s (Haagen-Smit, 1954). The emissions responsible for those urban ozone enhancements were primarily from on-road vehicles, which were common to all US urban areas.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In summary, we are suggesting that the NOx emissions largely control the timing of seasonal maximum in ozone, while the VOC emissions control the seasonal cycle amplitude. If this hypothesis is correct, consideration of the role of biogenic VOCs could help to explain some of the diversity in the seasonal cycles and shifts seen among the model simulations; as can be seen in Figure 1 of Griffiths et al (2021) the temporal variation of the biogenic VOCs emissions are significantly different across the models.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Even though the six ESMs used the same prescribed anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, Figure 1 of Griffiths et al (2021) shows that subtle differences remain in NOx emissions and even greater differences in CO and biogenic VOC emissions between models. Differences in the VOC emissions arise because the speciated VOC emissions that were provided had to be mapped onto the chemical mechanisms in the individual models, and this mapping may not fully account for the total VOC emissions prescribed.…”
Section: Precursor Emissionsmentioning
confidence: 99%