Importance
High-sensitivity cardiac troponin-T (hs-cTnT) is a biomarker of cardiovascular risk and could be approved in the US for clinical use soon. However, data linking long-term temporal change in hs-cTnT to outcomes are limited, particularly in primary prevention settings.
Objective
To examine the association of 6-year change in hs-cTnT with incident coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF; further sub-classified into reduced [HFrEF] and preserved ejection-fraction [HFpEF]), and all-cause mortality.
Design
The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) prospective observational cohort.
Setting
General community US study with biracial representation.
Participants
8,838 participants (mean age 56 years, 59% female, 21% Black), initially free of CHD and HF, who had hs-cTnT measured twice, 6 years apart.
Main Outcome and Measures
Risk factor and temporal hs-cTnT data were collected. Using Cox regression, we examined the association of hs-cTnT change with subsequent CHD, HF, and death over a maximum of 16 years. Improvement in discrimination was determined by Harrell’s C-statistic.
Results
There were 1,157 CHD events, 965 HF events, and 1,813 deaths overall. Incident detectable hs-cTnT (baseline<5ng/L, follow-up≥5ng/L) was independently associated with subsequent CHD (HR 1.4, 95%CI 1.2–1.6), HF (HR 2.0, 95%CI 1.6–2.4) and death (HR 1.5, 95%CI 1.3–1.7), relative to hs-cTnT <5ng/L at both visits. In addition, HRs as high as 4 for CHD and death and 8 for HF were recorded among subjects with the most marked hs-cTnT increases (e.g. baseline<5ng/L, follow-up≥14ng/L). Risk for subsequent outcomes was lower among those with relative hs-cTnT reductions >50% from baseline. Furthermore, information on hs-cTnT change improved discrimination for HF and death when added to a model that included traditional risk-factors, NT-proBNP and baseline hs-cTnT. Among subjects with adjudicated HF hospitalizations, hs-cTnT change appeared to be similarly associated with both HFrEF and HFpEF.
Conclusions and Relevance
Temporal increases in hs-cTnT, suggestive of progressive myocardial damage, are independently associated with incident CHD, death and, above all, with heart failure. Serial determination of hs-cTnT trajectory adds clinically relevant information to baseline testing and may be useful in prognostic assessments and in targeting prevention strategies to high-risk individuals, especially among persons with Stage A or B heart failure.