Tropical cyclone track forecasting techniques ― A review

Abstract

Delivering accurate cyclone forecasts in time is of key importance when it comes to saving human lives and reducing economic loss. Difficulties arise because the geographical and climatological characteristics of the various cyclone formation basins are not similar, which entails that a single forecasting technique cannot yield reliable performance in all ocean basins. For this reason, global forecasting techniques need to be applied together with basin-specific techniques to increase the forecast accuracy. As cyclone track is governed by a range of factors variations in weather conditions, wind pressure, sea surface temperature, air temperature, ocean currents, and the earth' rotational force-the coriolis force, it is a formidable task to combine these parameters and produce reliable and accurate forecasts. In recent years, the availability of suitable data has increased and more advanced forecasting techniques have been developed, in addition to old techniques having been modified. In particular, artificial neural network based techniques are now being considered at meteorological offices. This new technique uses freely available satellite images as input, can be run on standard PCs, and can produce forecasts with good accuracy. For these reasons, artificial neural network based techniques seem especially suited for developing countries which have limited capacity to forecast cyclones and where human casualties are the highest.

Vulnerability Analysis of the Venetian Littoral and Adopted Mitigation Strategy

“…In some cases, it is useful to statistically analyse the forcing provided by extensive databases (e.g., NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks [33]). …”

“…In some cases, it is useful to statistically analyse the forcing provided by extensive databases (e.g., NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks [33]). Evaluation of the coastal flooding risk is a specific task that may be integrated using raster images included in the Coastal GIS as described in [34].…”

Automatic Type Recognition and Mapping of Global Tropical Cyclone Disaster Chains (TDC)

“…Thus, it needs in-depth research to make a dynamic and real method of TDC recognition. There are many existing methods that can simulate Tropical Cyclone tracks [48,49] and the wind or rain fields [50][51][52], which are sophisticated and sometimes expansive to apply in the current study. We plan to add those simulation models of Tropical Cyclone tracks and fields in our future study so that we will be able to update the affected region, recognize the disaster chains of TC-WI (wind) and TC-RS (rain) in real-time and obtain practical results.…”

Analysis of a major storm over the Dongjiang reservoir basin associated with Typhoon Bilis (2006)

“…Tropical cyclones (TCs), also known as hurricanes, typhoons or cyclones, are one of the most devastating weather phenomena in the world, but tropical cyclones are still poorly understood (Roy and Kovordanyi 2012). Tropical cyclone is an important trigger of many hazards, including floods, landslides and debris flows, and thus has drawn much attention from hydrologists, geomorphologists and engineering geologists (Catane et al 2012;Chen et al 2008;Huang et al 2012;Liu and Wu 2011;Yu et al 2006).…”