Tropical cyclone precipitation regimes since 1750 and the Great Suppression of 1843–1876 along coastal North Carolina, USA

Abstract

Latewood ring widths of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) are effective recorders of annual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation (TCP), accounting for approximately half of the explained variance. Based on a regional chronology comprised of data from five sites in coastal North Carolina, we reconstructed TCP during 1750-2015 to examine temporal variability of multidecadal dry and wet TCP regimes, the synoptic controls that contributed to an exceptionally dry phase in 1843-1876, and the effectiveness of using latewood to identify droughts independent of TCP. We found six phases of alternating dry/wet phases occurred during the 250+ years in the reconstruction (duration range = 17-62 years) and the 1843-1876 period of exceptionally narrow latewood widths and low TCP values (i.e., the Great Suppression) was unique during the past quarter millennium. The Great Suppression coincided with a period of anomalously low pressure (relative mean hPa deviation = −60 DAM) over the eastern USA at 500 hPa heights, which strongly affects the steering of TCs. We found that while each dry phase was characterized by a persistence of these steering lows, including the most recent (2006-2016) period absent of major landfalling TCs in the United States, the Great Suppression was unmatched in intensity. Finally, we determined that variability in longleaf pine latewood widths do not reflect overall soil-moisture conditions, as neither narrow nor wide latewood widths are coincident with variations in non-TC-related precipitation. Rather, latewood growth flushes are associated with ephemeral periods of elevated water tables following high-intensity TC-related rainfall events. K E Y W O R D S dendroclimatology, longleaf pine, North Carolina, tropical cyclones, USA 1 | INTRODUCTION Extreme rainfall totals associated with land-falling tropical cyclones (TCs) in the United States can cause billion-dollar disasters as observed with Hurricanes Harvey (2017, $130), and Florence (2018, $24.2) (NOAA, 2019). Heavy rainfall associated with these events has been attributed to a combination of enhanced atmospheric moisture (i.e., saturation specific humidity), increased abrupt directional deviations, and reduced translation speed as a function of the Earth's

Reconstructing Historical Intense and Total Summer Rainfall in Central North Carolina Using Tree-Ring Data (1770–2020)

“…Similarly, chestnut oak (Quercus prinus) tree-ring data reconstructed May-June precipitation during 1750-1981 in southwestern Virginia [3], a multi-species chronology reconstructed the Flint River May-September streamflow in Georgia during 1675-2000 [6], and mean March-October Suwanee River discharge was reconstructed during 1550-2005 [5]. Recently, a multi-species chronology reconstructed May-July Tennessee Valley streamflow during various periods from the late 1600s to the present [11], and longleaf pine chronologies reconstructed July-September quasi-stationary precipitation in central North Carolina during 1790-2018 [7], tropical cyclone precipitation in the North Carolina coastal plain during 1750-2015 [8], and Gulf coastal plain tropical cyclone precipitation during 1540-2012 [9]. These studies [1- 9,11] indicate a nuanced contextualization of historic hydroclimate variability in the region such that some reconstructions indicate that the twentieth century included the most extreme pluvials (e.g., [1,3]), while other reconstructions indicate that twentieth century pluvials were not unique when viewed over the longer-term reconstructed timescales [5].…”

“…Despite the recent focus on dendroclimatic research on specific precipitation event types (e.g., convective, frontal, tropical cyclone), few studies have isolated the relative contributions to radial growth by precipitation type in the southeastern USA (e.g., [4,[7][8][9]12]). Absent this information, understanding of the interannual variability of radial growth can be confounded.…”

Radial Growth Responses of Four Southeastern USA Pine Species to Summertime Precipitation Event Types and Intense Rainfall Events

“…Recent work indicates that specific precipitation event types influence longleaf pine radial growth unequally. For example, longleaf pine growing in the coastal plain physiographic region of Florida and North Carolina principally respond to tropical cyclone precipitation (e.g., [8,[24][25][26]), while longleaf pine growing in the piedmont physiographic region principally respond to a combination of convective and stationary front precipitation (hereafter, "quasi-stationary precipitation", [11]). Thus, regardless of precipitation event type, the influence of infrequent high-intensity rainfall events appears to be the leading modulator of longleaf pine radial growth, rather than total precipitation [27], even when intense events represent less than half of the total rainfall amounts, which raises the question if similar conditions exist for other pine species of the southeastern USA.…”