Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US joint rainfall-surge hazard

Gori, Avantika; Lin, Ning; Xi, Dazhi; Emanuel, Kerry

doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-805581/v1

Cited by 2 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…Synthetic TCs used in this study are generated in Gori et al. ( 2022 ) for the US East and Gulf Coasts using the statistical‐deterministic hurricane model of Emanuel et al. ( 2008 ) and Emanuel ( 2021 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We model storm tides for each of the eight CMIP6 models (herein ADCIRC‐CMIP6 models) that overlap with the study of Gori et al. ( 2022 ) (see Figure 4 for the models) for the simulations employed in this study. TCs are modeled using the statistical‐deterministic hurricane model developed by Emanuel et al.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Synthetic TCs used in this study are generated in Gori et al (2022) for the US East and Gulf Coasts using the statistical-deterministic hurricane model of Emanuel et al (2008) and Emanuel (2021). The TC model generates synthetic TCs for a given large-scale atmospheric and oceanic environment.…”

Section: Future Changes To the Storm Tide At Wilmingtonmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Storm tide (combination of astronomical tide and storm surge) projections are based on simulations of Gori et al (2022), using the 2D depth-integrated version of the hydrodynamic model ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC; Luettich et al, 1992;Westerink et al, 1994). We model storm tides for each of the eight CMIP6 models (herein ADCIRC-CMIP6 models) that overlap with the study of Gori et al (2022) (see Figure 4 for the models) for the simulations employed in this study. TCs are modeled using the statistical-deterministic hurricane model developed by Emanuel et al (2008) and Emanuel (2021).…”

Section: Hydrodynamic-climatological Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…TCs are modeled using the statistical-deterministic hurricane model developed by Emanuel et al (2008) and Emanuel (2021). The ADCIRC mesh has a resolution of between 1 km nearshore and 100 km in the deep ocean (Gori et al, 2022;Lin et al, 2019;Marsooli et al, 2019). We assume the cyclone-threatened area for each site to be within a 200-km radius.…”

Section: Hydrodynamic-climatological Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Correlation Between Sea‐Level Rise and Aspects of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity in CMIP6 Models

et al. 2022

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Future coastal flood hazard at many locations will be impacted by both tropical cyclone (TC) change and relative sea‐level rise (SLR). Despite sea level and TC activity being influenced by common thermodynamic and dynamic climate variables, their future changes are generally considered independently. Here, we investigate correlations between SLR and TC change derived from simulations of 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. We first explore correlations between SLR and TC activity by inference from two large‐scale factors known to modulate TC activity: potential intensity (PI) and vertical wind shear. Under the high emissions SSP5‐8.5, SLR is strongly correlated with PI change (positively) and vertical wind shear change (negatively) over much of the western North Atlantic and North West Pacific, with global mean surface air temperature (GSAT) modulating the co‐variability. To explore the impact of the joint changes on flood hazard, we conduct climatological–hydrodynamic modeling at five sites along the US East and Gulf Coasts. Positive correlations between SLR and TC change alter flood hazard projections, particularly at Wilmington, Charleston and New Orleans. For example, if positive correlations between SLR and TC changes are ignored in estimating flood hazard at Wilmington, the average projected change to the historical 100 years storm tide event is under‐estimated by 12%. Our results suggest that flood hazard assessments that neglect the joint influence of these factors and that do not reflect the full distribution of GSAT change may not accurately represent future flood hazard.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Future Changes To the Storm Tide At Wilmingtonmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hydrodynamic-climatological Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Hydrodynamic-climatological Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Correlation Between Sea‐Level Rise and Aspects of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity in CMIP6 Models

et al. 2022

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Community Flood Impacts and Infrastructure: Examining National Flood Impacts Using a High Precision Assessment Tool in the United States

Porter

Shu²,

Amodeo³

et al. 2021

Water

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Changing environmental conditions are driving worsening flood events, with consequences for counties, cities, towns, and local communities. To understand individual flood risk within this changing climate, local community resiliency and infrastructure impacts must also be considered. Past research has attempted to capture this but has faced several limitations. This study provides a nation-wide model of community flooding impacts within the United States currently and in 30 years through the use of high-resolution input data (parcel-level), multi-source flood hazard information (four major flood types), multi-return period hazard information (six return periods), operational threshold integration, and future-facing projections. Impacts are quantified here as the level of flooding relative to operational thresholds. This study finds that over the next 30 years, millions of additional properties will be impacted, as aspects of risk are expected to increase for residential properties by 10%, roads by 3%, commercial properties by 7%, critical infrastructure facilities by 6%, and social infrastructure facilities by 9%. Additionally, certain counties and cities persistently display impact patterns. A high-resolution model capturing aspects of flood risk as related to community infrastructure is important for an understanding of overall community risk.

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Tropical cyclone climatology change greatly exacerbates US joint rainfall-surge hazard

Cited by 2 publications

References 59 publications

Correlation Between Sea‐Level Rise and Aspects of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity in CMIP6 Models

Correlation Between Sea‐Level Rise and Aspects of Future Tropical Cyclone Activity in CMIP6 Models

Community Flood Impacts and Infrastructure: Examining National Flood Impacts Using a High Precision Assessment Tool in the United States

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