Tropical cyclone activity over Madagascar during the late nineteenth century

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) represent the most significant natural hazard for the economy and population of Madagascar. Planning for the impacts of future cyclone strikes requires a detailed understanding of the frequency of destructive storms in the past. In this paper, we utilise historical documentary materials to construct an initial framework of TCs making landfall on Madagascar during the latter half of the 19th century. The study focuses on 1862–1900 as this is the period of most extensive documentary records. Accounts of storm damage contained within historical sources are used to reconstruct TC tracks over land, with details of wind damage converted into Fujita (F) Scale classes to classify TC intensity. A total of 20 TCs are identified, of which only 17 are included within the IBTrACS dataset for the southwest Indian Ocean. The TCs of 13–14 March 1872 and 28 January–1 February 1893 were the most destructive of the late 19th century, with F3+ levels of wind damage identified from historical accounts. We compare our results with data for TCs within the IBTrACS dataset that made landfall on Madagascar during the period 1970–2012. This comparison suggests that (1) fewer TCs made landfall during the 19th century compared with the post-satellite era, but that of these (2) a greater proportion appear to have crossed the northeast of the island. There is no significant correlation between numbers of landfalling TCs and either mean annual SOI or DMI. We conclude with a consideration of additional archival collections that may be used in future investigations to enhance our chronology

Landscape evolution and climate in Madagascar: lavakization in the light of archive precipitation data

“…Maps showing relevant data of soil (Besairie, 1946), lithology (Du Puy and Moat, 2003), temperature (Cornet, 1972), agroclimatology (Oldeman, 1988), tropical cyclones threatened areas (ONE, 2008b), and precipitation distribution (ONE, 2008a) have been integrated using Global Mapper 13. Specific cyclone track maps (Donque, 1972;Nash et al, 2015) were used to study the erosive effects of heavy rainfall events. The climatic data were downloaded from the National Climatic Data Center of National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, NCDC, 2014) in order to show the inter-annual variability.…”

“…Table 3 includes the climatic conditions: average temperatures, percentage of rainy days, annual precipitation, specific cyclone tracks (Donque, 1972;ONE, 2008b;Nash et al, 2015). Data for vegetation cover, soil, lithology and land use intensity were also collected.…”

“…Lavaka density (for 2003 and 2008) in relation to various environmental characteristics. Cyclone track types were defined using Nash et al (2015) classification. , 2005, 2007, 2008(NOAA, NCDC, 2014 with box-whisker plots showing the variation of precipitation for each month.…”

“…As it was mentioned earlier, the most intense precipitation events are often related to tropical cyclones (TCs). Of the study areas characterized by high lavaka density, Ranohira (Site 4) is affected by TC tracks Type I, Majunga (Site 3) is affected by TC tracks Types I and II, whereas Sites 2, 3 and 4 are affected by TC track Types II and III (using the typology of Donque, 1972;ONE, 2008b;Nash et al, 2015).…”

Recent emergence of CAT5 tropical cyclones in the South Indian Ocean

“…8,[19][20][21][22] Because of the socio-economic vulnerability within the region, research on South Indian Ocean tropical cyclones has included the considerable infrastructural and economic costs associated with storm damage. 18,23,24 This study reflects on the emergence of tropical cyclones in the IBTrACS record for the South Indian Ocean in 1994, and the changing dynamics of these storms over the past two decades, including changes in the number of CAT5 storms, the latitudinal positions of the storms, and the underlying sea surface temperatures as drivers of cyclogenesis.…”