Tropical Convection and Precipitation Regimes in the Western United States

Mo, Kingtse C.; Higgins, R. Wayne

doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2404:tcapri>2.0.co;2

Cited by 105 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Because of this coherence, a connection was inferred between the MJO and surface temperature variations at high latitudes through the effects that the MJO induces on humidity and anomalies in geopotential height in the middle troposphere. These results agree with those of Higgins and Mo (1997), Higgins (1998), andJones (2000). Additionally, Minetti and Vargas (1997) demonstrated the existence of a modulation in the intraseasonal fluctuations of temperature anomalies in the Argentinean tropics due to the different El Niñ o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Joint Diagnostic of the Surface Air Temperature in Southern South America and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Naumann

Vargas

2010

Weather and Forecasting

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The objective of this research is to explore the relationship between maximum and minimum temperatures, daily precipitation, and the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). It was found that the different phases of the MJO show a consistent signal on winter temperature variability and precipitation in southeastern South America. Additionally, this paper explores the spatial-temporal variations of mutual information and joint entropy between temperature and the MJO. A defined spatial pattern was observed with an increased signal in northeastern Argentina and southern Brazil. In the local mutual information analysis, periods in which the mutual information doubled the average values were observed over the entire region. These results indicate that these connections can be used to forecast winter temperatures with a better skill score in situations where both variables covary.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Joint Diagnostic of the Surface Air Temperature in Southern South America and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Naumann

Vargas

2010

Weather and Forecasting

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“…9b). This is consistent with the results of Mo & Higgins (1998) and Higgins et al (2000) for extreme events in southern California. They associated the tropical forcing west of the Dateline to intraseasonal oscillations (IO) due to the MJO.…”

supporting

confidence: 92%

“…Accordingly, it is possible that the western trough in the jet, typical of extreme events during 1976-2000, was further intensified by thermal interaction with regional anomalies of a warm California Current off Baja California, low-level moisture advection from the subtropical warm sea-surface region, and intense convective activity in the study area. Several authors (Mo & Higgins 1998, Higgins et al 2000, Jones 2000 have associated the tropical forcing west of the Dateline (i.e. during neutral conditions) to intra-seasonal fluctuations due to the MJO.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Higgins et al (2000) emphasize that extreme precipitation events in southern California occur at all phases of the ENSO cycle, but most of these events occur during neutral winters prior to the onset of El Niño, and are linked to intraseasonal (i.e. Madden-Julian Oscillation, MJO) and interannual (ENSO) fluctuations (Mo & Higgins 1998).The purpose of this study is to investigate the interannual variability of extreme precipitation (above the 90th percentile: P90) and to diagnose the regional and largescale climate anomalies associated with 1 d heavy precipitation events in Tijuana, Baja California, Mexico. This work is different from previous studies in that we focus on the interannual change of 1 d precipitation extremes in a large urban center that is prone to runoff and floods.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Variability of extreme precipitation events in Tijuana, Mexico

Cavazos

Rivas²

2004

Clim. Res.

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We investigated the variability of 1 d precipitation extremes (top 10%) in Tijuana (Mexico) during . Interannual rainfall variability is associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which explains 30% of rainfall and 36% of 1 d extreme precipitation variance. Interannual precipitation exhibits a large change, with a relatively dry period and less variability during 1950-1976, followed by a relatively wet period and more variability during 1976-2000. All extremely wet years (>1 SD) and the largest frequency of 1 d extremes occurred after 1976-1977, with 6 out of 8 extremely wet years characterized by El Niño episodes and 2 by neutral conditions. However, more than half of the 1 d extremes during 1950-2000 occurred in non-ENSO years, providing evidence for the fact that neutral conditions contribute significantly to extreme climatic variability in the region. Extreme events that occur in neutral (strong El Niño) conditions are associated with a 'pineapple express' and a 'neutral Pacific/North America (PNA)' (negative tropical/northern hemisphere [TNH]) teleconnection pattern that links an anomalous tropical convective forcing west (east) of the date line with a strong subtropical jet over the study area. The neutral PNA is a variant of the typical ±PNA teleconnection pattern; it is shifted northwestward of the +PNA (typical of El Niño) and southeastward of the -PNA (typical of La Niña) and is characterized by a strong ridge over the Gulf of Alaska and a deep low over California. We believe that the trough in the jet, typical of extreme events during neutral and strong El Niño years, is further intensified by thermal interaction with regional anomalies of a warm California Current off Baja California, low-level moisture advection from the subtropical warm sea-surface region, and intense convective activity over the study area. KEY WORDS: Climatic variability · Extreme precipitation · ENSO · Non-ENSO · Tijuana · Mexico Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 25: [229][230][231][232][233][234][235][236][237][238][239][240][241][242][243] 2004 The most studied precipitation-related climatic impacts in the area are those associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO); this is because the interannual scale (2-7 yr) contributes more than 40% of the rainfall variability, and ENSO explains about 30% of that variance (e.g. Cayan et al. 1998). Annual rainfall in southern California and NW Baja California is commonly above (below) normal during El Niño (La Niña) events with some exceptions (e.g. Schonher & Nicholson 1989, Gershunov & Barnett 1998, Pavía & Badan 1998, Minnich et al. 2000, Pavía 2000. During strong El Niño episodes, heavy precipitation is also common in southern California (e.g. Cayan et al. 1999, Higgins et al. 2000, Gershunov & Cayan 2003, as well as in NW Baja California (e.g. Pavía & Badan 1998) and Tijuana (e.g. Bocco et al. 1993). Gershunov & Cayan (2003) document that the frequency of heavy daily precipitation in southern California...

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CMIP5 model simulations of the impacts of the two types of El Niño on the U.S. winter temperature

Zou

Lee

et al. 2014

J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.

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Thirty Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) preindustrial simulations are examined to contrast impacts of the two types of El Niño on the U.S. winter temperatures. The CMIP5 models are found more capable of simulating the observed eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño impacts (a warm northeast, cold southwest pattern over the U.S.) but less capable of simulating the observed central Pacific (CP) El Niño impacts (a warm northwest, cold southeast pattern). During EP El Niño, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies influence the Walker circulation giving rise to a basin-wide pattern of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies. The modeled atmospheric responses to the EP El Niño are thus less sensitive to the detailed structure of the simulated SST anomalies and can be well simulated by most of the CMIP5 models. In contrast, the SST anomalies during the CP El Niño affect the strength of the Walker circulation less effectively than the EP El Niño. OLR anomalies are local, rather than basin wide. The modeled atmospheric responses to the CP El Niño therefore depend more on how realistically the CP El Niño SST anomalies are simulated in the models. As a result, the CP El Niño's impact on the U.S. winter temperature, controlled by the atmospheric wave train response to the OLR forcing, is less well simulated by the CMIP5 models. This conclusion is supported by an examination of the Pacific North American and tropical/Northern Hemisphere patterns produced by the CMIP5 models in response to the two types of El Niño.

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Tropical Convection and Precipitation Regimes in the Western United States

Cited by 105 publications

References 18 publications

Joint Diagnostic of the Surface Air Temperature in Southern South America and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Joint Diagnostic of the Surface Air Temperature in Southern South America and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Variability of extreme precipitation events in Tijuana, Mexico

CMIP5 model simulations of the impacts of the two types of El Niño on the U.S. winter temperature

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