Questions: Natural regeneration is increasingly recognized as a potentially costeffective strategy to reach ambitious forest landscape restoration targets, but rates of recovery are notoriously variable. We asked how well initial habitat conditions after cessation of agriculture predict forest recovery after nearly a decade. We aimed to provide land managers with general rules of thumb to assess when it is necessary to invest resources in active restoration, such as tree planting, to accelerate forest recovery.Location: Coto Brus County, Puntarenas, Costa Rica.
Methods:We compiled data on initial vegetation structure, soil nutrients, prior landuse history and surrounding forest cover at 13 sites. After 8.5 years, we measured vegetation indicators commonly used to assess forest recovery, namely amount of canopy closure and number and diversity of woody recruits.Results: Two variables, grass cover and canopy closure, measured 1.5 years after site abandonment, explained 47-87% of five of the six response variables after 8.5 years; recovery was faster in sites with lower grass cover and higher canopy closure initially.Waiting an additional year to measure initial vegetation variables did not improve model fit. Time since the original forest was cleared explained 62% of change in canopy cover, whereas percentage of surrounding forest cover, length of pasture use and soil variables explained minimal additional variation.
Conclusions:Our results suggest that two easily measurable vegetation variables can provide guidance to land managers and policy makers about where to invest scarce restoration resources to facilitate forest recovery.
K E Y W O R D Scanopy closure, forest recovery indicators, forest restoration, grass cover, natural regeneration, secondary succession, seedling recruitment
S U PP O RTI N G I N FO R M ATI O NAdditional supporting information may be found online in the Supporting Information section at the end of the article. Appendix S1. Study and site locations Appendix S2. Site characteristics Appendix S3. Vegetation sampling design Appendix S4. Correlations between initial site variables Appendix S5. Δ recruit density 8.5-1.5 as a function of canopy closure including outlier site Appendix S6. Recruit species list How to cite this article: Holl KD, Reid JL, Oviedo-Brenes F, Kulikowski AJ, Zahawi RA. Rules of thumb for predicting tropical forest recovery.