Trojan Horse, Copycat, or Scapegoat? Unpacking the Refugees-Terrorism Nexus

Abstract

Widespread fear that hosting refugees will mean more terrorism in host states is at the heart of the `refugee crisis'. Yet, we lack rigorous evidence for such claims. This article theoretically unpacks how and under what conditions transnational refugee movements plausibly lead to different types of terrorist outcomes. Combining original data with a multi-pronged approach involving a treatment-placebo design as well as instrumental variable estimation, we provide systematic and robust evidence that sheds new light on the security implications of forced migration. Our findings challenge the claim that hosting refugees heightens the risk of ``importing'' terrorist attacks against nationals of host countries, especially in developed countries. However, in these countries refugees themselves are particularly prone to becoming the targets of terrorist attacks by natives, driven by fear and revenge. Dominant policy responses to the refugee crisis that raise fears and suspicions are therefore not only ill-suited, but potentially counterproductive.

Blame the victims? Refugees, state capacity, and non-state actor violence

“…Hence, additional coding efforts to distinguish between refugees as the source or target of violence are necessary. Savun & Gineste (2019), Gineste & Savun (2019), and Polo & Wucherpfennig (2017) have begun to pursue this promising avenue of research; in addition, Fisk (2014) provides spatially disaggregated conflict and refugee data in 26 African countries for 2000–10, while Shaver & Zhou (2017) have compiled geo-coded data on UNHCR refugee sites for 1989–2008.…”

Terrorism and Migration: An Overview

“…Both transmission channels would imply comparatively low opportunity costs of terrorism, for example, as the possibilities of refugee participation in the labor market are limited. By contrast, Polo and Wucherpfennig (2019) challenge the notion that hosting refugees leads to more terrorism against nationals of the host country. They claim that any increase in terrorism due to the inflow of refugees that is observed at the country level is due to scapegoatingthat is, refugees becoming the target (rather than the perpetrators) of terrorism.…”

“…This again speaks to the idea that the treatment of migrants (for example, in terms of immigration and integration policies) can condition the effect of migration on terrorism. Indeed, Polo and Wucherpfennig (2019) show that refugees will not attack nationals of their host country especially in developed countries, presumably because refugees are treated better in richer countries. Similarly, Böhmelt, Bove and Gleditsch (2019a) show that while a refugee influx may fuel domestic conflict between refugees and locals, this effect is especially prevalent in countries characterized by low levels of state capacity (such as those with a weak state bureaucracy).…”

“…While previous empirical studies have examined the general relationship between migration and terrorism, another set of studies examine the relationship between involuntary migration and terrorism. Three large-N studies by Salehyan (2013), Milton, Spencer andFindley (2013) and Polo and Wucherpfennig (2019) investigate the effect of refugee inflows on terrorism in the receiving country. Choi and Salehyan (2013) use data for 154 countries for the years 1970-2007, and find that countries that host refugees are more likely to experience terrorist activity.…”

“…Applying a rational-choice model of terrorism, the inflow of migrants can make anti-immigrant terrorism more likely because (1) there is a larger pool of potential targets (which lowers the costs of carrying out antiimmigrant violence) and ( 2) immigration may lower the opportunity costs of anti-immigrant violence for host country locals (for example, as labor market competition crowds out part of the native population). Migrants and refugees may also be scapegoated when they can be linked (for example, due to religious or ethnic affiliation) to external terrorist threats that are relevant to the host country's native population (Polo and Wucherpfennig 2019). Through these pathways, terrorism against non-natives can become more likely as immigration increases.…”