Triffin Dilemma and International Monetary System : Evidence from Pooled Mean Group Estimation

This study investigates the causal relationship between public and private external debt and economic growth in developing countries. Our model includes 18 selected Asian developing and transition economies from 1995 thru 2019. We employ the dynamic heterogeneous panel data methods, pooled mean group (PMG), robust cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL), and pairwise panel causality test. The results of PMG and CS-ARDL show the existence of causality between external debt and economic growth both in the short-run and long-run. The pairwise Granger causality test found the bidirectional causal relationship runs from total external debt, public external debt, and private external debt to economic growth and economic growth to external debt. The results showed first the existence of causality in the short-run and long-run between external debt and economic growth and the second, bi-directional causality that runs from external debt to economic growth and economic growth to external debt. Both the dynamic models and robust estimator found the same inferences about the impact of main variables on economic growth in Asian developing and transition economies. The findings of this study suggest to assure debt management, investment in productive sectors, increase domestic savings, decrease external dependency, and focus on international trade.

Section: Dynamic Panel Model : Mg Dfe Pmg and Hausman Testmentioning

confidence: 99%

External Debt and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Study of Granger Causality in Developing Countries

Zhang¹,

Dawood²,

Al-Asfour³

2020

“…Moreover, IMF (2012) affirms that the excessive reserves can causes the long imbalance of the world economy as per Triffin's Dilemma and destroys the stability of world currency system. In fact, Guan and Lau (2018) indicate that Triffin's Dilemma exists in the long run after re-examining by the data set of four currencies (USD, JPY, EUR and GBP) from 1973 to 2013. This affirms more the instability of world currency system from accumulating reserves excessively.…”

Section: Introduction 7mentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimum Reserves in Vietnam Based on the Approach of Cost-Benefit for Holding Reserves and Sovereign Risk

Tran¹,

Le²

2020

This paper estimates the optimum level of reserves in Vietnam based on the approach of reserves' cost-benefit and sovereign risk which is one of developing countries' characteristics. The cost of reserves is the opportunity cost when holding reserves. The benefit of reserves is the loss due to country's default in case that there is no reserves to finance external debt payment. The optimum reserves is found out by minimizing the total of opportunity cost and loss due to country's default with the probability of default. Through the usage of HP Filter method for calculating the loss due to country's default, ARDL regression for the risk premium model and lending rate of VND as proxy for opportunity cost together with the Vietnamese economic data in the period of 2005 -2017, the empirical results show that the optimum reserves in Vietnam is almost higher than the actual reserves during the research period except the point of Q3/2008 and the last point of research period -Q4/2017. Therefore, Vietnam should continue to increase reserves for safety but Vietnam does not need pushing quickly the speed of increasing reserves. In addition, controlling Vietnamese optimum reserves is necessary to help the actual reserves become reasonable.

“…The author"s proposition on the basis of reference: Nguyen et al (2019), Bui (2019), Guan & Lau (2018), Hanini (2013), Nguyen (2013), Pham (2010), Lin & Yu (2002) 2. The operational budget estimation at the responsibility centers (faculty / department / institute) is made annually for activities.…”

Section: Variables Of the Research Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors Affecting Responsibility Accounting at Public Universities: Evidence from Vietnam

Nguyen¹

2020

The study explores factors that affect the performance of responsibility accounting at public universities in Vietnam. The study conducted a survey of 130, out of 154 public universities in Vietnam and uses regression analysis methods. The results identify eight groups of factors affecting the performance of responsibility accounting at these establishments of higher education: Division of the organization into responsibility centers, Estimation and Reality, Cost and income allocation, University autonomy, Management decentralization, Estimation, Reward, and Report. Costs and income allocation for responsibility centers, university autonomy, and the division of universities into responsibility centers are shown to significantly affect the performance of public universities in Vietnam. The results show that the performance of responsibility accounting at public universities in Vietnam is influenced by decentralization of management, division of the organization into responsibility centers, reward, cost and income allocation, estimation, evaluation of the results achieved between the estimation compared with reality, release of reports and university autonomy. Among the factors, cost and income allocation, university autonomy, division of the organization into responsibility centers, reward and evaluation of results achieved between estimation and reality have strong impacts. The study findings also indicate that the school council does not affect responsibility accounting at these universities.