Tribal Guerrilla Warfare Against a Colonial Power

Allan, Pierre; Stahel, Albert A.

doi:10.1177/0022002783027004002

Cited by 12 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Blank et al. (2008) provide a recent account of such a model of the war in Iraq; Allan and Stahel (1983) developed a model of the Afghan‐Soviet War (1979–1989). The value of these type of models lies in their ability to identify and connect key, and thus necessary, features of a dynamic system in a (sometimes overly) simple way.…”

Section: The Case: Afghanistanmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The modeling framework we developed to study socio‐political culture in conjunction with armed conflict consists of a macro‐level system dynamics model of guerrilla warfare in Afghanistan which is couched into an agent‐based computational model of socio‐cultural organization processes of power structures in Afghanistan. System dynamics models have been utilized in modeling guerrilla warfare’s macro properties (for example, Allan and Stahel 1983; Blank et al 2008); agent‐based models have been utilized in cultural modeling exercises (cf. Axelrod 1997; Geller and Moss 2008).…”

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confidence: 99%

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A Socio-Political and -Cultural Model of the War in Afghanistan¹

Geller

Alam

2010

International Studies Review

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We present a simulation model of current conflict-torn Afghanistan in which a system-dynamics model is coupled with an agent-based model. Agent-based modeling techniques are applied to model individual cognition and behavior as well as group formation processes. System-dynamics modeling is used for representing macro conflict processes, such as duration of violence and combat success ratio. The cognitive and behavioral processes are couched in a socio-cultural context and feed into the system dynamics processes. This affords us exploring the relationship between local socio-culturally-driven cognition and behavior and (dynamic) macro properties of armed conflict. We demonstrate the importance of analyzing conflict-torn Afghanistan from an interplay of adapting ''traditional'' socio-cultural mechanisms, political culture and power structures, and politico-economic macro-processes. We find that variations in the conflict's superstructure can be explained through variations in socio-culturally dependent structures. The model indicates limitations with regard to classical prediction, but is promising with regard to explanatory-driven pattern forecasting.In Afghanistan, ''traditional'' modes of warfare merge with contemporaneous modes of guerrilla warfare (Roy 1994) 1 . This does not only apply to warfare in a narrow, tactical sense, but also in a wider dimension encompassing the conflicttorn Afghan society. We argue that the socio-cultural dimension is important in creating an understanding of conflict in general and, more specifically, current Afghanistan. The aim of the research at hand is to investigate the role of sociocultural factors in the production of conflict. For this reason we investigate the following two general questions: What are the inter-relations between socio-cultural and -political patterns and macro-properties and -outcomes of armed conflict? Can we infer from knowledge about cultural traits to patterns of future conflict outcomes?International Studies Review (2010) 12, 8-30 For the purpose of this article, culture is understood as a set of shared attitudes, values, goals, and practices that characterizes an institution, organization or group. We understand as political culture a repertoire of cognitive, behavioral, and normative patterns in the production of power as well as in the organization of groups for the pursuit of cooperation and conflict. Whereas the sphere of the cultural has for long been of interest to both, anthropologists and political scientists that are interested in conflict (for example, Ferguson 1990;Snyder 2002), formal models of conflict taking into account the socio-cultural sphere are to the best of our knowledge non-existent.However, explanations for who interacts with whom, how, when, and why can be (partially) explained in terms of (political) culture through the idea of individual action selection. Issues of (political) culture also stand at the core of group and alliance formation as well as group interaction processes (for example, Hannan and Freeman 1977;Morril...

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Section: The Case: Afghanistanmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

A Socio-Political and -Cultural Model of the War in Afghanistan¹

Geller

Alam

2010

International Studies Review

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“…These models attained their greatest success when representing asymmetric conflict at the most aggregate level (Gilbert and Troitzsch 2005:53). These models were also often empirically specialized to represent prominent insurgency cases at the time, such as the Vietnam War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (Milstein and Mitchell 1969; Ruloff 1975; Allan and Stahel 1983; Stahel 1985). In fact, from the birth of computational modeling until the more recent introduction of object‐oriented methodology of agent‐based modeling (ABM), the dominant approach to computational exploration of civil unrest was through the use of system dynamics models (Choucri et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

MASON RebeLand: An Agent-Based Model of Politics, Environment, and Insurgency

Cioffi‐Revilla

Rouleau

2010

International Studies Review

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Abstract-Social simulation models from computational social science are beginning to provide significant advances in terms of implementing more complex social, human, and natural dynamics that are characteristic of how realworld countries operate. The MASON RebeLand model presents three innovations: (1) an explicit polity model with politically complete structure and processes; (2) social and natural model components within an integrated socionatural system; and (3) generative dynamics where insurgency and the state of the polity (stable, unstable, failing, failed, recovering) occur as emergent phenomena under a range of social and environmental conditions. Earlier agentbased models (ABMs) on similar topics have been useful in covering parts of RebeLand's scope. Three scenarios are demonstrated, showing stable, unstable, and failing polity conditions. The MASON computational system also permits additional experiments and extensions.

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“…One example of this is Albert Stahel's and Pierre Allan's analysis of the Soviet War in Afghanistan using a dynamic model. This took into account the macro-combat interactions between the Afghan guerrilla forces and the Soviet and Afghan regular armies as well as the support for the guerrillas by the population (Allan and Stahel 1983).…”

Section: Simulation As An Analytical Methods In Social Sciencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Securitization of Islam: A Vicious Circle

Lenz-Raymann¹

2014

Globaler Lokaler Islam

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This study is my doctoral thesis and was financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNF). I am glad for having had this opportunity to work and do research in my special field of interest. First of all, my thanks go to my doctoral committee, consisting of Prof. Dr. Albert A. Stahel (Institute for Strategic Studies, Wädenswil), Prof. Dr. Kurt Imhof (University of Zurich) and Prof. Dr. Ueli Mäder (University of Basel). In particular, Albert Stahel strengthened my critical mind concerning world politics and the strategic decision-making of nation states. His faith in my scientific endeavours gave me the self-confidence to keep going with my work. My simulation model profited from the long-time simulation experience and advice of Armando Geller (co-founder of Scensei, and affiliated with the School of Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University in Washington) and Lukas Schmid (head of the Institute for Innovation, Design und Engineering at the University of Applied Sciences of St. Gallen). Their critique enabled me to improve the model and made me realise that a lot would still have to be done to bring it up to date. Many people enriched this study by giving me formal or informal interviews in Central Asia. I cannot name all of them because some could face difficulties with their restrictive governments. I am very thankful for their hospitality and openness to discuss with me their religious and political worldviews. My Kyrgyz friends in Switzerland enabled me to come into contact with many people in the field and were always open to discuss the topic of my research with me. Without them this study would not have become as vivid, well-researched and detailed as it has. They helped me with their knowledge of local languages, by sharing their own research and life expe-flict in Central Asia and draw some conclusions from the simulation outcomes.

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Tribal Guerrilla Warfare Against a Colonial Power

Cited by 12 publications

References 4 publications

A Socio-Political and -Cultural Model of the War in Afghanistan¹

A Socio-Political and -Cultural Model of the War in Afghanistan¹

MASON RebeLand: An Agent-Based Model of Politics, Environment, and Insurgency

Securitization of Islam: A Vicious Circle

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Tribal Guerrilla Warfare Against a Colonial Power

Cited by 12 publications

References 4 publications

A Socio-Political and -Cultural Model of the War in Afghanistan1

A Socio-Political and -Cultural Model of the War in Afghanistan1

MASON RebeLand: An Agent-Based Model of Politics, Environment, and Insurgency

Securitization of Islam: A Vicious Circle

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

A Socio-Political and -Cultural Model of the War in Afghanistan¹

A Socio-Political and -Cultural Model of the War in Afghanistan¹