Sixteen acceptably randomized studies of anticoagulant therapy after cerebral or retinal ischemia or infarction are reviewed and the results among 1,046 anticoagulated patients and 1,071 controls are analyzed. The following conclusions are derived. 1) Anticoagulant therapy has not been shown to be better than control management after transient ischemia or nonprogressing ischemic stroke; this is true whether the control management was deliberately ineffectual treatment (generally studies completed in 1974 or earlier) or platelet antiaggregant therapy (pooled results of three recent studies). 2) Although a study done 30 years ago demonstrated no benefit, a recent study showed benefit from anticoagulant therapy in patients who had had cerebral emboli of cardiac origin; additional controlled data are needed. 3) There is evidence that patients with thrombosis in evolution might benefit from anticoagulant therapy; additional controlled data are needed. (Table 1).
Materials and MethodsStudies were found through computerized search, direct search of the cumulative Index Medicus, suggestions from colleagues, and review of references in articles already discovered. Being well aware that an analysis such as this, especially when the work of one person, can suffer from error, incompleteness, and bias, 22 I solicit references to studies I have missed and alternative interpretations of the data I have summarized. I will, on request, provide more extensive notes on my own interpretations, as well as the various calculations.Where possible, I have used the end points of stroke or death (S + D) occurring during observation. The overall expected S + D per patient-month of observation for a given (arm of a) study is the sum of S + D for the treated and control groups divided by the sum of the patient-months for the two groups. This overall expected S + D rate multiplied by the patient-months of observation for each group separately gives the expected S + D for each group. Significance is defined as /?<0.05. Where feasible, I have pooled the S + D results for meta-analysis. Certain studies present results in forms not suitable for S + D analysis and are therefore not amenable to meta-analytic pooling; the authors' end points are given for these studies and the authors' analyses of significance are recorded. Table 2 summarizes the S + D results from 10 studies in which patients with stroke and transient ischemic attacks (TIAs) were randomized to ACT or to deliberately ineffectual treatment (placebo, no treatment, or deliberately ineffectual doses of anticoagulants). Among 20 identifiable groups or subgroups from these 10 studies there is one (the Cerebral Embolism Study 20 ) in which the ACT outcome was significantly better than control. In three other instances (the completed stroke and embolism groups from the National Cooperative Study 910 and the male stroke group from the Veterans Administration Cooperative Study") the ACT results were significantly worse than control. In the other 16 groups or subgroups the difference between...