Trial by fire: One perspective for guessing

Abstract

Guessing correct answers to test items is a statistical concept that has direct impact when interpreting test scores. Many published tests, however, do not account for guessing. This is an important issue in view of recent federal legislation in the United States and global attention mandating the provision of identification of at-risk children for educational services. Children may score within a normal range by chance alone, resulting in test scores that are not sensitive. The purpose of this paper, therefore, is: (a) to describe one process, random guessing, for estimating a "true blind guessing score" (range of scores) that, if known, would result in missing fewer at-risk children; and (b) to sensitize test administrators to tests that do not address or may have suspicious corrections for guessing answers on tests.