Trends of streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the past 50years: Human impact or climate change?

Tao, Hui; Gemmer, Marco; Bai, Yanchao; Su, Buda; Mao, Weiyi

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.016

Cited by 256 publications

(174 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…A significant increase of temperature and precipitation within the period 1962-2006 was found, which is in agreement with several other studies (see for example, Tao et al, 2011 andChen et al, 2006). The results based on the CRU-TS3.21 and CMA data sets show a temperature increase of 0.3 K per decade.…”

Section: Climate Changesupporting

confidence: 93%

“…There is general agreement that both temperature and precipitation have been increasing over the last few decades in the Aksu and Tarim basins (Tao et al, 2011). According to the analysis of Shangguan et al (2009), which is based on data from 25 weather stations in the Tarim River basin, a warming of 0.77 ± 0.16 • C (0.019 • C yr −1 ) and an increase in precipitation of 22.8 ± 7.9 % between 1960 and 2000 were found for the region.…”

Section: Climate Changementioning

confidence: 95%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River (SuMaRiO) in Northwest China under conditions of climate change

Rumbaur¹,

Thevs

Disse³

et al. 2015

Earth Syst. Dynam.

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Abstract. The Tarim River basin, located in Xinjiang, NW China, is the largest endorheic river basin in China and one of the largest in all of Central Asia. Due to the extremely arid climate, with an annual precipitation of less than 100 mm, the water supply along the Aksu and Tarim rivers solely depends on river water. This is linked to anthropogenic activities (e.g., agriculture) and natural and semi-natural ecosystems as both compete for water. The ongoing increase in water consumption by agriculture and other human activities in this region has been enhancing the competition for water between human needs and nature. Against this background, 11 German and 6 Chinese universities and research institutes have formed the consortium SuMaRiO (Sustainable Management of River Oases along the Tarim River; http://www.sumario.de), which aims to create a holistic picture of the availability of water resources in the Tarim River basin and the impacts on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems caused by the water distribution within the Tarim River basin. On the basis of the results from field studies and modeling approaches as well as from suggestions by the relevant regional stakeholders, a decision support tool (DST) will be implemented that will then assist stakeholders in balancing the competition for water, Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 84 C. Rumbaur et al.: Sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River acknowledging the major external effects of water allocation to agriculture and to natural ecosystems. This consortium was formed in 2011 and is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. As the data collection phase was finished this year, the paper presented here brings together the results from the fields from the disciplines of climate modeling, cryology, hydrology, agricultural sciences, ecology, geoinformatics, and social sciences in order to present a comprehensive picture of the effects of different water availability schemes on anthropogenic activities and natural ecosystems along the Tarim River. The second objective is to present the project structure of the whole consortium, the current status of work (i.e., major new results and findings), explain the foundation of the decision support tool as a key product of this project, and conclude with application recommendations for the region. The discharge of the Aksu River, which is the major tributary of the Tarim, has been increasing over the past 6 decades. From 1989 to 2011, agricultural area more than doubled: cotton became the major crop and there was a shift from small-scale to large-scale intensive farming. The ongoing increase in irrigated agricultural land leads to the increased threat of salinization and soil degradation caused by increased evapotranspiration. Aside from agricultural land, the major natural and semi-natural ecosystems are riparian (Tugai) forests, shrub vegetation, reed beds, and other grassland, as well as urban and peri-urban vegetation. ...

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Section: Climate Changesupporting

confidence: 93%

Section: Climate Changementioning

confidence: 95%

Sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River (SuMaRiO) in Northwest China under conditions of climate change

Rumbaur¹,

Thevs

Disse³

et al. 2015

Earth Syst. Dynam.

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“…Several studies report increasing discharge of the Aksu headwater streams over the period 1957-2004[e.g., Zhang et al, 2010Krysanova et al, 2014]. While it is assumed that these increases are related to concurrent trends in temperature and precipitation [Chen et al, 2009;Xu et al, 2010;Zhang et al, 2010;Tao et al, 2011], a thorough attribution analysis is still missing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt‐dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia

Duethmann

Bolch

Farinotti

et al. 2015

Water Resources Research

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169

142

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Observed streamflow of headwater catchments of the Tarim River (Central Asia) increased by about 30% over the period . This study aims at assessing to which extent these streamflow trends can be attributed to changes in air temperature or precipitation. The analysis includes a data-based approach using multiple linear regression and a simulation-based approach using a hydrological model. The hydrological model considers changes in both glacier area and surface elevation. It was calibrated using a multiobjective optimization algorithm with calibration criteria based on glacier mass balance and daily and interannual variations of discharge. The individual contributions to the overall streamflow trends from changes in glacier geometry, temperature, and precipitation were assessed using simulation experiments with a constant glacier geometry and with detrended temperature and precipitation time series. The results showed that the observed changes in streamflow were consistent with the changes in temperature and precipitation. In the Sari-Djaz catchment, increasing temperatures and related increase of glacier melt were identified as the dominant driver, while in the Kakshaal catchment, both increasing temperatures and increasing precipitation played a major role. Comparing the two approaches, an advantage of the simulation-based approach is the fact that it is based on process-based relationships implemented in the hydrological model instead of statistical links in the regression model. However, data-based approaches are less affected by model parameter and structural uncertainties and typically fast to apply. A complementary application of both approaches is recommended.

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“…There are also other climate change parameters that can be used in order to investigate the trend of the climate change parameters. Willett et al (2007) used atmospheric water vapor and Tao et al (2011) used vapor pressure, sunshine duration and potential evaporation as additions to the basic climate change parameter in order to investigate the trend of the climate change parameters. However, only five climate change parameters were considered in this study because most of the studies in recent years have focused on changes in temperature, precipitation (Gocic & Trajkovic 2013), humidity (Singh et al 2008), wind speed (Jiang et al 2010) and radiation (Trabea & Shaltout 2000) only.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying the Monotonic Trend in Climate Change Parameter in Kluang and Senai, Johor, Malaysia

Hamzah¹,

Saimi

Jaafar³

2017

JSM

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Trends of streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the past 50years: Human impact or climate change?

Cited by 256 publications

References 26 publications

Sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River (SuMaRiO) in Northwest China under conditions of climate change

Sustainable management of river oases along the Tarim River (SuMaRiO) in Northwest China under conditions of climate change

Attribution of streamflow trends in snow and glacier melt‐dominated catchments of the Tarim River, Central Asia

Identifying the Monotonic Trend in Climate Change Parameter in Kluang and Senai, Johor, Malaysia

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