Trends of COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease) in GCC Countries using SEIR-PAD Dynamic Model

Abstract

Extension of SIR type models has been reported in a number of publications in mathematics community. But little is done on validation of these models to fit adequately with multiple clinical data of an infectious disease. In this paper, we introduce SEIR-PAD model to assess susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, super-spreader, asymptomatic infected, and deceased populations. SEIR-PAD model consists of 7-set of ordinary differential equations with 8 unknown coefficients which are solved numerically in MATLAB using an optimization algorithm. Four set of COVID-19 clinical data consist of cumulative populations of infected, deceased, recovered, and susceptible are used from start of the outbreak until 23rd June 2020 to fit with SEIR-PAD model results. Results for trends of COVID-19 in GCC countries indicate that the disease may be terminated after 200 to 300 days from start of the outbreak depends on current measures and policies. SEIR-PAD model provides a robust and strong tool to predict trends of COVID-19 for better management and/or foreseeing effects of certain enforcing laws by governments, health organizations or policy makers.

Nonlinear control of Covid-19 pandemic based on the SIRD model

“…As shown in Fig. 1, the results are in outstanding agreement with those of Sedaghat et al [12]. It should be mentioned that the results of Ref.…”

“…Here, to validate the simulation results, the written MATLAB code is employed to obtain the results of Ref. [12]. As shown in Fig.…”

“…It should be mentioned that the results of Ref. [12] are without a control law (without quarantine). As it can be seen in Fig 1 adapted from Sedaghat et al [12], over a period of ten months, in the worst situation, more than 13000 people will be infected with the COVID-19 and more than 800 people will die.…”

“…However, they only tested their model against two sets of clinical results. The SEIR-PAD model was introduced by Sedaghat et al [11,12] using the extension of the SIR model. The SEIR-PAD model is the extension of the SEIR model considering the asymptomatic infected, superspreader, and deceased individuals consisting various sets of differential equations.…”

“…The SEIR-PAD model is the extension of the SEIR model considering the asymptomatic infected, superspreader, and deceased individuals consisting various sets of differential equations. Table 1 includes the fundamental models of the pandemic [1,2,12]. Further advanced SIRDbased models and data-driven had been investigated in [13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21].…”